Europe | The ECB paving the way for a June cut

Summary

This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequently wages, moderates as expected.

Key points

• Key points:
• The ECB maintained key rates unchanged.
• New operational framework to be unveiled on 13 March.
• Downward revision of staff inflation and growth forecasts, aligning with our outlook.
• Mrs. Lagarde’s comments strengthen our call for a first rate cut in June.

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