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2023 will be the “Year of China” after the authorities lifted “zero Covid” policy amid the global economic slowdown. How to rebuild market confidence and repair the household and enterprises’ balance sheets become the main challenges in the post-pandemic era.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth forecasts of 2.3% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024-28.
The crisis of 2022 has central banks striving to avoid the sins of the 1970s, fiscal policy resisting to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2009 and 2012, and the new international order trying to learn lessons from what happened 100 years ago.
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entail…
Central Government has authorized (approved and implemented) spending programs linked to the RRTP amounting to 43.7 billion euros, 83% of what was planned for 2021 and 2022. Of these, Central Government would have granted and awarded investment…
Sound budget execution data lead to an improvement in the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. The reduction of the imbalance will be limited by announced or prolonged measures, by the impact of inflation on spending and by the effect that the slowdown may have
Chinese economy has experienced a bumpy recovery after the Shanghai lockdown was lifted. We lowered our 2022 prediction from 4.5% to 3.6%.
Sound budget execution data introduce positive biases on the deficit forecast in 2022, while the slowdown in activity in 2023 will dampen the cyclical recovery of the government balance. Deficit projections are revised to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 an…
The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.
In 2022 the activity in Uruguay will grow 4.7%, with an important statistical contribution that leaves the 4T21 and the contribution of investment, external demand and consumption to a lesser extent. The conflict in Europe has a moderate net po…
The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing to raise interest rates in a bid to control inflation without triggering a recession. But can it control the consequences of its actions as we move forward?
2021 closed with a deficit of 6.8% of GDP, the same as estimated three months ago. The invasion of Ukraine and measures to mitigate the rise in energy prices slow down the adjustment, and the deficit is expected to fall to 6.0% in 2022. In 2023, the deficit would fall to 4.6% of GDP.
