Fiscal policy latest publications
The government's request to delegate legislative powers on tax matters has generated controversy. The proposed proposals are far from being a comprehensive reform that allows for the equitable and efficient distribution of the effort that we must make as a society to bear the costs of the pandemic.
Good budgetary implementation data introduce positive biases on the deficit scenario, and the forecast is revised to 7.0% of GDP in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022. The expected impact of the Recovery Plan in 2021 is downgraded and carried forward to the following years.
We raised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 7.5%, but we do not expect a dynamic performance in the coming two years (average annual growth: 2%). The key question is whether that will be a result of the correction of imbalances or due to a postponement of them. An agreement with the IMF would shed light on this issue.
We adjusted our 2021 economic growth forecast from 7% to 6.5%. This year will be notably marked by the midterm elections. The macroeconomic performance of Argentina during the coming years will be defined crucially by the characteristics of the agreement with the IMF, which would take place in 1Q22.
Positive development on tax collection and a lower impact of the pandemic introduce biases in the deficit forecasts, which are revised to 7.7% of GDP in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022. The approval of the Recovery Plan and the suspension of fiscal rules anticipate that fiscal policy will remain expansionary.
The most recent U.S. inflation rate of 5%, a level unseen since 2008, has set the alarm bells ringing. In the eurozone, where recovery is intense but less dynamic, inflation is also rising, reaching 2% in May.
The COVID has been a great challenge, forcing to approve unprecedented measures. In Europe, monetary and fiscal stimuli prevented further economic drop but at the same time public accounts were hit. A clear budgetary plan and a suitable fiscal framework will be crucial to guarantee the sustainability of public finances.
The global economy keeps recovering in spite of the uncertain epidemiological context. World GDP growth should be 5.9% in 2021. The worsening health situation slows down economic activity in Uruguay, which will grow less than expected in 2021.