Fiscal policy latest publications
The European economy has begun the year immersed in a third wave of the pandemic which, although it is beginning to recede, will slow the recovery expected for this year.
The deficit the crisis has left in public accounts probably reached 11.5% of the GDP in 2020. Moreover, in the short term, the imbalance in public accounts may have to go back to historically high levels again in 2021 in order to sustain activity.
The expenditure growth stabilization and the strength shown by taxes, lead to lower the deficit forecast for 2020 to 11.5% of GDP. The Recovery funds represent an opportunity to favor fiscal adjustment and resume the downward path of public debt.
The COVID-19 pandemic hit Argentina's economy hard, which is in its third consecutive year of recession. With the second wave of contagion in sight, the government is negotiating a new program with the IMF that could be crucial for the country's sustainable growth.
It's difficult to talk about economic recovery right now. Health indicators continue to show a worrying deterioration. Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises are worried about the negative effect that fear of infection and the restrictions imposed to reduce it are having on their turnover.
The global economy has been pushed and pulled between two opposing forces: the brutal shock of the pandemic and the overwhelming response of both monetary and fiscal economic policies. This will continue in 2021.
Beyond the human tragedy of COVID-19, 2020 has left us with a long list of economic consequences for the future. They are not all negative. The most obvious consequence is the severe recession, with global GDP expected to decrease by more than 2.5%, which is a bigger decrease than that of the 2009 financial crisis (-1.7%).
Better settle in after a long haul. After experiencing over-deleveraging and economic slowdown in 2017, China-US trade war since 2018, 2019 African Swine Flu and this year’s most unprecedented coronavirus pandemic flare-up and the arduous work of containing it, Chinese economy might have a previous respite in 2021.