Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.
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The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer from central to regional government.
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
The worse deficit performance in 2022 introduced negative biases on the forecast. As a result, the deficit forecast for 2023 is downgraded to 4.2% of GDP. With no fiscal policy changes, and considering the war-related measures as temporary, the…
The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
2023 will be the “Year of China” after the authorities lifted “zero Covid” policy amid the global economic slowdown. How to rebuild market confidence and repair the household and enterprises’ balance sheets become the main challenges in the post-pandemic era.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth …
The crisis of 2022 has central banks striving to avoid the sins of the 1970s, fiscal policy resisting to avoid repeating the mistakes of 2009 and 2012, and the new international order trying to learn lessons from what happened 100 years ago.
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entail…
Central Government has authorized (approved and implemented) spending programs linked to the RRTP amounting to 43.7 billion euros, 83% of what was planned for 2021 and 2022. Of these, Central Government would have granted and awarded investment programs for more than 11.6 billion euros.
Sound budget execution data lead to an improvement in the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. The reduction of the imbalance will be limited by announced or prolonged measures, by the impact of inflation on spending and by the effect that the slowdown may have