Fiscal policy latest publications
The global economic outlook deteriorated in 2019, following the downturn already seen in 2018. Between January and October, BBVA Research reduced its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 by 0.3 percentage points (pp) to 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively — half a point less than the average from 2011 to 2018.
The financial markets enter the final stretch of the year with their eyes set firmly on the trade war and Brexit, meaning that the optimism surrounding the favorable resolution of both matters could be the stimulus that the world economy needs to regain momentum.
After eight years in office at the European Central Bank (ECB), it is time for Mario Draghi to pass the baton in eurozone monetary policy. Christine Lagarde will become the first woman to head the ECB.
Regions with less income should have the highest growth rates. Capital is scarce in the more disadvantaged regions, which means higher profitability. In theory, this should encourage investment; but is that what has happened during crisis and recovery in Spain?
The most frequently repeated words during meetings and conversations last week in Washington were: low growth, political interference, trade war, downside risk, negative rates, financial instability, green economy, uncertainty, unilateralism and fiscal policy.
Budget execution data up to July 2019 slightly worsens the dynamics of 2018. For the 2019-2020 period, an exclusively cyclical adjustment is expected, which will determine a slightly expansive tone of fiscal policy
At its meeting last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched a comprehensive package of easing measures, as Draghi had—for all intents and purposes—been signaling over recent months (in his speech at Sintra and, most significantly, at July's monetary policy meeting).
One of the most hotly debated political issues during the last elections was the margin that Spain has for raising and lowering taxes.