Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy latest publications

June 4, 2019

Fiscal policy in Mexico: a challenge to be addressed

Mexico is facing important fiscal challenges. On the one hand, its tax collection is very low: tax revenue as a share of the GDP (only 14%) is not only the lowest in the OECD, but it is also low when compared to other Latin American economies.

June 3, 2019

Portugal: orthodoxy, certainty and reward

A couple of years ago, the risk premium paid by the Portuguese 10-year government bond against its German counterpart was hovering between 350 and 400 basis points (bp). Meanwhile, the Spanish 10-year bond was paying between 100 and 125 bp.

May 17, 2019

Spain | Uncertainty around fiscal policy in the 2019-20 period

The first budget execution data for 2019 slightly worsens last year's dynamics. In an environment of extended budget and policy uncertainty, the economic cycle will reduce the deficit, although the current fiscal targets will be missed.

April 25, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

Activity slowed at the beginning of the year due to the decline in public investment and mining production. Going forward, there will be a better performance .We continue foreseeing GDP will grow by 3.9% in 2019 supported by mining investment. However, in comparison with the previous report, now our forecast has a downward …

April 12, 2019

Mexico | Positive signs in fiscal policy

Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) has recently issued indications that I view as positive and that have been well received by the markets. The most important of these concerns the recently announced preliminary criteria for economic policy.

February 22, 2019

Spain | 2019-20: stability goals that are tough to reach

The expansionary spending measures in 2018 have had a detrimental effect on the primary structural balance, leading to non-compliance with the stability goal for the third time in the last five years. In a scenario with no changes to fiscal policy, the deficit will not fall below 2% of GDP at the end of the 2019-2020 period.

February 7, 2019

Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

Firm policies helped to stabilize Turkish Financial Markets and the economy is re-balancing fast. The economic activity adjustment gained momentum at the end of 2018 but there are early signs of bottoming-out. We expect policymakers stick to sound policies.

January 25, 2019

Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

We estimate that GDP advanced around 4.6% yoy in Q4 2018. As a result, GDP growth in 2018 would have been around 3.9%. This year, due to a strong increase in mining investment, but also more restrained public spending and less favourable external conditions, we forecast that GDP will advance 3.9% in 2019, a similar figure t…