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72.7 billion euros, 91% of the planned total, has been approved over the lifetime of the Recovery Plan, but only around 33.5 billion (42% of the planned amount) have been resolved. In total, it is estimated that the funds would be reaching more than 500,000 businesses and families.

Given that one of the most relevant factors for the dynamism of the external motor of the Mexican economy will be the unfolding of interest rates in the US, the possibility of more inflationary persistence in that country could decelerate the external motor more than anticipated.

Inflation peaked in 2022 before easing considerably in 2023 in most economies. For instance, the average inflation rate in the United States dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to around 4.1% in 2023, while in the eurozone it fell from 8.4% to nearly 5.6…

Two weeks ago, the private sector walked away from the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Marrakech less worried than a year earlier, but with three lingering concerns: inflation and interest rates going forward, low global gr…

The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule -CARF- made a public debt projection tool available to the public and, prior to its publication, BBVA Research served as a pilot test of its use. This presentation contains comments from BBVA Research…

Pro-cyclical policies and threats to the viability of the eurozone are two obstacles that are best avoided as we move forward. What’s left of the fiscal consolidation process is certainly significant and there should first be a consensus on how best achieve it.

The central reflection when analyzing the fiscal package for 2024 is that Mexico needs a fiscal rule. A public deficit of 4.9% of GDP is proposed for 2024, which, if materialized, will be the highest since 1990.

Chinese economy slowed down in Q2 amid housing crash and deflation expectation. We expect the economy could bottom out in the rest of year with the help of policy support.

Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.

The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer fr…

The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.

The worse deficit performance in 2022 introduced negative biases on the forecast. As a result, the deficit forecast for 2023 is downgraded to 4.2% of GDP. With no fiscal policy changes, and considering the war-related measures as temporary, the deficit would be reduced in 2024 to 3.5% of GDP.