Publications

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

Colombia’s GDP grew 2.7% in Q1 2025, driven by consumption (76.7% of GDP), while investment remains weak, especially in housing and infrastructure. The key challenge is boosting investment to ensure sustainable growth.

GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.

After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.

China’s 2023 Q3 economic activities are better-than-expected and stronger than Q2 outturns amid policy support, showing some bottomed-out signals after Q2’s dipping.

There are some positive signals in August activity indicators, suggesting the economy might have passed the worst amid a series of recent policy support.

Upward revision in our 2023 growth estimate to 2.4% (1.4% previously); the resilience of domestic demand drives growth this year. We anticipate a slowdown in 2H23 due to lower external demand, with a carry-over effect on 2024.

Turkish economy grew by 4% y/y in 1Q23 in line with market expectation (vs. 3.9% consensus and 4.3% ours). Assuming no sharp normalization in economic policies ahead of local election in 2024, we expect GDP growth to be in the range of 4-5% in 2023 on the current strong momentum and expected loose policies.