Publications

GDP rose 2.1% y/y in Q2 2025, fueled by consumption, especially durable goods. Investment focused on machinery and civil works, but buildings weighed down growth. The 2025 forecast remains at 2.3%, with room for upside if positive trends strengthen.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.

GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.

Mexico's dependence on remittances reached a maximum of 4.0% of GDP in 2022. It is estimated that remittances would represent 3.5% of GDP in 2023 and by 2024 they will reach 3.7%. The appreciation of the Mexican peso (MXN) against the US dollar (USD) has relatively reduced Mexico's dependence on these resources.

China’s 2023 Q3 economic activities are better-than-expected and stronger than Q2 outturns amid policy support, showing some bottomed-out signals after Q2’s dipping.

China's economic recovery came to a halt in Q2 after registering a stellar performance at the beginning of the year due to sluggish external demand, anemic domestic housing market and weak market sentiments. Policy stance has shifted from "prudent" to "pro-growth".

Upward revision in our 2023 growth estimate to 2.4% (1.4% previously); the resilience of domestic demand drives growth this year. We anticipate a slowdown in 2H23 due to lower external demand, with a carry-over effect on 2024.