Publications

GDP accelerated to 3.6% y/y in Q3 2025 (1.2% q/q sa). Final consumption led; investment was uneven—equipment strong, construction weak—while net trade detracted. With firm domestic demand and lower inventories, the 2025 call (2.5%) tilts upward.

October economic activity indicators showed continuing sliding. All of these activity indicators are below the previous month’s readings and the market consensus amid the weak market sentiments.

GDP rose 2.1% y/y in Q2 2025, fueled by consumption, especially durable goods. Investment focused on machinery and civil works, but buildings weighed down growth. The 2025 forecast remains at 2.3%, with room for upside if positive trends strengthen.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.

GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.

Mexico's dependence on remittances reached a maximum of 4.0% of GDP in 2022. It is estimated that remittances would represent 3.5% of GDP in 2023 and by 2024 they will reach 3.7%. The appreciation of the Mexican peso (MXN) against the US dollar (USD) has relatively reduced Mexico's dependence on these resources.