Publications

In October, economic activity grew 3.6% year-on-year and year-to-date growth reached 3.4%. The primary sector stood out (7.8%), driven by mining and fishing, while non-primary activity slowed to 2.5% due to weaker manufacturing and construction.

GDP fell 0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the persistent weakening of domestic demand, with less dynamism in private consumption, a slowdown in the real wage bill and sharp declines in gross fixed investment —affected by legal uncertainty, external volatility and the fiscal consolidation.

GDP accelerated to 3.6% y/y in Q3 2025 (1.2% q/q sa). Final consumption led; investment was uneven—equipment strong, construction weak—while net trade detracted. With firm domestic demand and lower inventories, the 2025 call (2.5%) tilts upward.

October economic activity indicators showed continuing sliding. All of these activity indicators are below the previous month’s readings and the market consensus amid the weak market sentiments.

GDP rose 2.1% y/y in Q2 2025, fueled by consumption, especially durable goods. Investment focused on machinery and civil works, but buildings weighed down growth. The 2025 forecast remains at 2.3%, with room for upside if positive trends strengthen.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.