Peru | Activity accelerated in February and surprised the market on the upside

Summary

Economic activity accelerated in February to 3.7% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, with strong momentum in trade and construction. Year-to-date, GDP growth stands at 3.6%.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP grew 3.7% year-on-year in February, exceeding market expectations (3.4%), with year-to-date growth standing at 3.6%.
• Growth was led by non-primary GDP (4.3%), with trade posting its highest rate since March 2022 (6.0%) and construction expanding 8.9%.
• Primary GDP contracted 0.5%, dragged down by fisheries and hydrocarbons, which offset gains in metallic mining and the agricultural sector.
• In March, the disruption to the local gas supply is estimated to subtract approximately 2 p.p. from year-on-year growth, with a negative impact on hydrocarbons, electricity, transport, and manufacturing.
• Despite the transitory supply-side shock in March, demand remains solid and our 2026 growth forecast is maintained at 2.9%.

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