Peru | Economic activity surprised to the upside in March

Summary

Economic activity slowed down in March to 3.2% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, which reflects the recovery of private investment and the strength of the labor market. So far this year, GDP has accumulated growth of 3.5%.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP grew 3.2% year-on-year in March, surpassing market expectations (2.4%) and accumulating 3.5% growth so far this year.
• Dynamism was led by non-primary GDP (3.8%), particularly construction (13.6%) and commerce (4.1%).
• Primary GDP contracted 1.7%, mainly explained by the sharp contraction in the fishing sector (-12.5%) and hydrocarbon production (-35.4%), the latter affected by the interruption in local gas supply.
• Incorporating the March data, the first quarter of 2026 grew 3.5%, slightly above the 3.4% registered in the previous quarter. This result is mainly explained by the good performance of the non-primary sector, which advanced 3.9%, driven by the acceleration of construction and commerce.
• Growth in March and the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a smaller-than-anticipated impact from the gas supply disruption and solid performance in demand-driven sectors. Nevertheless, several sources of uncertainty could shape the future performance of the Peruvian economy: the electoral outcome between two candidates with opposing economic visions, which has already weakened business and consumer confidence; the ongoing conflict in the Middle East; and climate anomalies, which have led, for example, to bans on anchovy fishing. Macroeconomic forecasts will be updated in June.

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