Peru | Economic activity accelerated in March and surprised the market positively

Summary

Economic activity slowed down in March to 3.2% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, which reflects the recovery of private investment and the strength of the labor market. So far this year, GDP has accumulated growth of 3.5%.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP grew 3.2% year-on-year in March, surpassing market expectations (2.4%) and accumulating 3.5% growth so far this year.
• Dynamism was led by non-primary GDP (3.8%), particularly construction (13.6%) and commerce (4.1%).
• Primary GDP contracted 1.7%, mainly explained by the sharp contraction in the fishing sector (-12.5%) and hydrocarbon production (-35.4%), the latter affected by the interruption in local gas supply.
• Incorporating the March data, the first quarter of 2026 grew 3.5%, slightly above the 3.4% registered in the previous quarter. This result is mainly explained by the good performance of the non-primary sector, which advanced 3.9%, driven by the acceleration of construction and commerce.
• The first quarter was a positive surprise compared to our estimate, largely because the impact of the gas supply cut on industries was less than anticipated, and other sectors showed better performance. However, several elements of uncertainty persist moving forward that could affect economic activity; we will continue evaluating these factors and will update our estimates in our June publication.

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