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June 12, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. June 2019

Models suggest more than 70% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Shadow banking, business debt and risk appetite represent major red flags. Dovish Fed response has potential to negate downside risks in short-term.

March 29, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financia…

January 30, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. January 2019

The probability of a recession steadies after sharp rise at the end of 2018. Financial markets adjusts to dovish monetary policy shift and stable growth outlook. Fiscal policy risk increasing with divided White House and Congress. Pressures on corporate spreads ease, as perception of near-term downside risks decline.

June 28, 2017

Retail or not retail. Have European banks become more retail on the wake of the crisis?

In early 2017, retail banking activities represented 30% of EU banks’ balance sheet. The crisis triggered an increase in the orientation of banks towards their core banking activities. Driven by market forces and new regulation, retail deposits expanded from 22% of the balance sheet to almost 30%.