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Published on Friday, March 29, 2019 | Updated on Monday, April 1, 2019

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. March 2019

Models suggest more than 50% probability of recession within the next 24 months. Global, housing and business debt represent major red flags. Fed’s strong dovish bias a response to risks. Markets digesting the balance between weaker outlook vs. lower expected interest rates. Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions remain solid.

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