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March 14, 2025
In its March meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
March 11, 2025
Global financial volatility has risen due to the impact of evolving US policies, which we expect to create negative shocks. In Türkiye, financial conditions have recently eased above the neutral level and credit growth has accelerated beyond the capped segments, increasing the challenges on the inflation outlook.
March 6, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 42.5% as expected. Following the positive surprise of Feb CPI, the CBRT remains comfortable despite stronger domestic demand than expected. We expect 250bps cut in April and the pace of rate cuts to decelerate June onwards, reaching 31.5% policy rate by end 2025.
March 6, 2025
This Working Paper examines the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do this, daily consumption and investment aggregates are constructed using bank transaction records and administrative data to measure daily gross output and employment in Spain.
February 27, 2025
A recent string of weak data together with the postponement of tariffs and a less worrisome fiscal bill than feared likely eased market participants’ bets of a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates at their current level for the whole year.
February 6, 2025
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
February 5, 2025
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
January 30, 2025
Signs that core inflation is back on trend to 2% could open the door for another cut in March, but the implementation of policies that could spark an upward trend in inflation, even if temporary, could imply a more extended pause.
January 27, 2025
The risk has grown that the Fed could keep rates on hold for more than one meeting as the nature and purpose of the upcoming tariffs is still unknown (i.e., their magnitude, their temporary or permanent nature, used mostly as a negotiating tool?).
