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    June 23, 2022

    Banxico shifts to a steeper tightening pace

    Banxico raised the policy rate by 75bp to 7.75% and signaled that another hike of this size was possible at its next meeting, but also that a larger hike was unlikely

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    June 22, 2022

    Banxico will act “more forcefully” and deliver, a widely anticipated, larger 75bp hike

    There is (now) a wide consensus that Banxico will match Fed’s expected hikes through December, taking the policy rate to 9.50% by year-end

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    June 21, 2022

    US | Treasury yields likely to increase further

    They will peak once the Fed is done tightening. Slowing demand to bring down inflation without significant pain is “not getting any easier”, but markets (still?) price in a soft landing.

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    June 20, 2022

    Europe | Monetary policy normalization pushes up risk premia

    The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a further step in its process of normalizing monetary policy by announcing at its latest meeting that it will end its asset purchase program in July, and that it is prepared to pick up the pace of its rate hikes to contain inflation, in line with other central banks.

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    June 16, 2022

    US | Fed steps up tightening pace and signals a more aggressive approach

    The main goal is to avoid long-run inflation expectations de-anchoring; rates will be at a “modestly restrictive level” by year-end.

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    June 15, 2022

    US | A larger 75 bps hike is now likely

    We now expect more rate hike front-loading as the FOMC turns more hawkish following persistently high inflation readings from last week.

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    June 3, 2022

    Turkey | CPI surprised on the downside but maintained an increasing trend

    Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

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    June 2, 2022

    Spain | 2022, year of banking transition

    In the Spanish banking system, 2022 will go down in history because several events will occur (or are already unfolding) whose impact on the industry’s results are hard to gauge. Two such events are the war in Ukraine and the end of the grace period for ICO-guaranteed loans.

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