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January 27, 2023
At its January meeting, the Central Bank increased the monetary policy rate by 75 bp, bringing it to 12.75%. The vote was split, with 2 members voting in favor of a 25 bp increase and 5 in favor of 75 bp.
The Fed is attempting to reverse this downshift saying it is set to keep policy “sufficiently restrictive for some time”. Next week, the FOMC will agree to slow rate hikes again and will discuss how much further to go.
The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 7.50% to 7.75% in January. The Bank tightened the monetary policy stance understood as the real ex-ante policy rate to a more restrictive level.
Spain must combine fiscal consolidation and budgetary stability with growth. It must increase the weight of productive public expenditure over total public spending and improve its efficiency, as a strategy for inclusive progress, in order to r…
As with any fever, inflation in 2022 was only the symptom of serious ailments. So why was the action of the European Central Bank (ECB), which raised rates from 0 to 2.5%, so important?
Consumer prices increased by 1.2% in December and annual consumer inflation fell sharply on base effects to 64.3% from the previous 84.4%, leading to a full year average of 72.3%. We expect annual CPI to come down to 50-55% in 1Q23 and decline further to 40-45% just before the elections and year-end inflation to be 42%.
However, the Fed is not convinced that inflation is “on a sustained downward path”, and thus, it will try to reverse the recent downshift of the yield curve.
At its December meeting, Banco de la República increased the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 12.0%. Although the vote was mostly for a 100bp increase, there was one vote for a 125bp increase and another for a 25bp incr…
We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effe…
Banxico lifted the policy rate by 50bp, to 10.50% and strongly hinted that the end of the tightening cycle is in sight .
FOMC shifts down from 75bp hikes by raising the fed funds rate by 50 bps to a 4.25-4.50% target range, but signals a more hawkish outlook, keeping an eye on non-housing core services inflation for signals of labor market rebalancing.
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.
