Monetary policy latest publications
The Italian economy has returned to the spotlight in recent weeks due to the risks that its fiscal policy may entail, and as a result of the noise generated by the proposals of something that may resemble a parallel currency.
After weeks of disappointing data, rising trade tensions and renewed fears of slower global growth, the Fed set the stage for a monetary easing cycle, in line with our view.
Just under a year ago, the Federal Reserve (Fed) began a process to review its monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices.
The ECB strengthened its forward guidance on rates, with no rate hikes at least through the first half of 2020 in response to the increase and persistence of global uncertainty. The ECB opens the possibility to further easing if needed.
In our view, the start of the easing cycle is likely to come later than warranted. Banxico remained overly hawkish in its quarterly inflation report (yesterday) and in the minutes of the last meeting (16 May) released today.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) published last Tuesday its latest inflation report. We believe rather than opening the door to a tighter monetary policy, the CBRT is moving to Inflation Forecast Targeting (IFT) framework since the Governor stressed the change of words as a “structural approach” rather than a “short term s…
Last March, in its monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to delay the expected interest rate rise, having announced that reference rates will remain at current levels at least through the end of this year – instead of until summer 2019 — as had been previously announced.
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the monetary policy rate unchanged (one-week repo, 24%) in line with expectations. We expect annual inflation will stay close to 20% until June and near 15.5% at the end of the year. Hence, we think that the CBRT should wait until October when the recovery in inflation will become more obv…