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Last March marked one year since the collapse of SVB, a milestone that began one of the largest episodes of banking stress in the history of the United States. With some structural issues still unresolved, especially in terms of supervision or liquidity, banks´ exposure to commercial real estate is currently under focus.

In its April decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 6.00%. However, the monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.

After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term infla…

The Spanish economy continues to grow, and has even accelerated in recent months. However, it does so with investment flagging, despite the support provided by the steady flow of resources from Europe.

A few days ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the first revision of its operational framework, designed to guide short-term interest rates into line with its monetary policy decisions and provide liquidity in a context of gradual ba…

Banco de la República reduced its policy rate by 50bp to 12.25%. With this, the Board of Banrep consolidates a 100bp cut since December when it started the process of rate reductions and accelerates the pace of cuts from 25bp to 50bp . Five Board members voted for 50bp cuts, one for 75bp and one for 100bp.

This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the remainder of the year and in 2025.

The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated d…

The Fed appears to have achieved a better balance of risks around its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. This suggests that it will soon begin to normalize its policy stance, probably in June, although it will proceed cauti…

Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals abo…

The Fed will likely convey that it continues to look for “more good data” before feeling enough confidence to begin cutting rates as the strength of economic activity has extended and shelter inflation has surprised to the upside.

While the labor market is still on track to a better supply-demand balance and wage costs cool down, two consecutive 0.4% MoM core inflation readings will likely continue to push the Fed to convey it needs “more good data” to gain greater confidence on the disinflationary process.