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Monetary policy

Monetary policy latest publications

June 24, 2019

Italy, once again

The Italian economy has returned to the spotlight in recent weeks due to the risks that its fiscal policy may entail, and as a result of the noise generated by the proposals of something that may resemble a parallel currency.

June 19, 2019

FOMC Meeting: June 18th-19th

After weeks of disappointing data, rising trade tensions and renewed fears of slower global growth, the Fed set the stage for a monetary easing cycle, in line with our view.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

June 17, 2019

The Fed: review of its monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices

Just under a year ago, the Federal Reserve (Fed) began a process to review its monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices.
  • Geography Tags
  • USA

June 6, 2019

ECB: More dovishness in several fronts

The ECB strengthened its forward guidance on rates, with no rate hikes at least through the first half of 2020 in response to the increase and persistence of global uncertainty. The ECB opens the possibility to further easing if needed.

May 30, 2019

Banxico remains overly hawkish

In our view, the start of the easing cycle is likely to come later than warranted. Banxico remained overly hawkish in its quarterly inflation report (yesterday) and in the minutes of the last meeting (16 May) released today.

May 3, 2019

Turkey | An Inflation-Forecast Targeting Regime

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) published last Tuesday its latest inflation report. We believe rather than opening the door to a tighter monetary policy, the CBRT is moving to Inflation Forecast Targeting (IFT) framework since the Governor stressed the change of words as a “structural approach” rather than a “short term s…

April 29, 2019

The ECB and the negative rates dilemma

Last March, in its monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to delay the expected interest rate rise, having announced that reference rates will remain at current levels at least through the end of this year – instead of until summer 2019 — as had been previously announced.

April 25, 2019

Turkey | The CBRT softens its policy tone

The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the monetary policy rate unchanged (one-week repo, 24%) in line with expectations. We expect annual inflation will stay close to 20% until June and near 15.5% at the end of the year. Hence, we think that the CBRT should wait until October when the recovery in inflation will become more obv…