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BBVA Research

Monetary policy latest publications

Türkiye Economic Outlook. December 2024

We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.

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November 28, 2024

US | Treasury yields edge higher as disinflation hits another bump on the road

Part of the rise in Treasury yields is also explained by a higher term premium, which has likely been driven by greater uncertainty around the US inflation and fiscal outlook in the following years amid Trump’s potential trade, tax and migration policies.

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November 28, 2024

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Mexico Economic Outlook. November 2024

We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.

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November 21, 2024

Türkiye | The CBRT seems to be ready for easing

The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.

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November 15, 2024

Mexico | All members are now on board with the rate cut cycle

A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).

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November 12, 2024

Mexico | Banxico is set to keep cutting rates amid cooling core services inflation

Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.

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November 8, 2024

Peru | BCRP resumes normalization of the policy rate, bringing it closer to neutral

In its November meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains above neutral.

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November 8, 2024

US | Fed takes “another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint”

We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.

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November 5, 2024

US | Fed set to slow the pace of rate cuts to 25 bps

FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.

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November 1, 2024

Colombia | Banco de la Republica reduced its policy rate by 50 bp to 9.75%

The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 50 bps, bringing it to 9.75%. This decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50 bp reduction and three members voting for a larger reduction of 75 bp. The balance reached at the last meeting remain unchanged.

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October 28, 2024

Europe | The ECB steps on the accelerator

A little over a month and a half ago, after the September monetary policy meeting, it was considered unlikely that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut interest rates in October.

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October 24, 2024

US | Treasury yields rebound as hard-landing chances drop off the radar

The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.

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