Monetary policy

Monetary policy latest publications

August 11, 2020

Banxico will cut its policy rate 50bp to 4.50%

We are sticking with 50bp cuts in the policy rate in each of the 2020 remaining scheduled meetings (to 3.00%). Forward guidance is unlikely but we expect Banxico to remain dovish and to brush aside the recent temporary and supply-driven inflation increase.

August 3, 2020

China | Understanding the policy signals of the July CPC Politburo meeting

The July Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of the domestic market for Chinese economy amid COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the meeting also confirmed that the stimulus policy will be gradually normalized with ongoing rollout of targeted fiscal stimulus and more conservative monetary policy stance.

July 31, 2020

Banxico has the space to further relax monetary policy

Since the arrival of the coronavirus to Mexico, Banxico has reduced the monetary policy rate by 2 percentage points, bringing it from 7% to the current level of 5%. The central bank can still lower it by at least another two percentage points and bring it down to 3% without posing a risk for inflation.

July 29, 2020

FOMC Meeting July 28-29: Dovish tone signals more accommodation for an extended period

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its commitment to, at a minimum, maintaining the current pace of asset purchases while also defending its expanded use of its lending powers until the economy is on the road to recovery.
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  • USA

July 22, 2020

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2020

Chinese economy is undergoing a V-shape recovery, with Q2 GDP increased significantly from -6.8% y/y in Q1 to 3.2%. Meanwhile, the recovery is still unbalanced as the pickup of the supply side appears much faster than that of the demand side. The recovery tends to make the 2H policy stimulus more conservative.

July 16, 2020

ECB WATCH | Summer is the time to pause to reflect

As widely anticipated, the ECB maintained status quo today, holding its policy guidance, interest rates, as well as the deposit tiering system unchanged

July 16, 2020

Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2020

Colombia started its recovery path after the strong second quarter shock due to the pandemic. This process will be slow and gradual and will be determined by sector openings approved by the national and local governments. GDP is expected to fall by 7.5% this year and to recover by 5.5% in 2021.

July 2, 2020

Mexico | Central Banks help, but they are not the solution

The world is experiencing the deepest recession in the last hundred years. The IMF estimates that the global economy will contract 4.9% in 2020. Many countries will have contractions in the second quarter of this year of between 30% and 40% at annualized rates.