Nowcast latest publications
The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.
Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.
Big data techniques help us to enrich traditional databases with high dimensional data, but there are still some challenges we have to face. Real time data, combined with historical data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions and the tools they use to answer them.
Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expe…
Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT m…
Nowcast model predicts 0.55% for 1Q16 real GDP growth. The modest forecast may be affected by residual seasonality