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Published on Thursday, November 14, 2019 | Updated on Friday, November 15, 2019

Turkey | The Economic Recovery Accelerates

The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • September IP shows that the acceleration in the economic activity. Also, leading indicators confirmed further recovery as of October.
  • The favorable base effect, the sizeable ease in monetary policy (1000 bp) and the pick-up in credit growth will prompt the economic activity to recover faster in coming quarters.
  • Complacency should be ruled out as geopolitical and global economic risks remain well alive.

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