Global | Investment in Real Time and High Definition: A Big Data Approach

Summary

We introduce a set of Big Data indicators to mimic Investment in Real Time and High Definition. We use aggregate information of BBVA Big Data from firm-to-firm transactions and complement with individual-to-firm information. The results are successful and are validated through multiple robustness checks.

Key points

• Key points:
• The high granularity and geo-localization of individual and firm-to-firm transactions data allow us to track the investment data in "high definition" from both a sectoral and geographical perspective.
• Particularly, we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery & Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey.
• The inclusion of the development indicators improve the properties of a standard Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting including forecasting accuracy, anticipation and news contributions.
• We also extend part of our tests to other countries, such as Spain and Mexico, with positive results.

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