Publications

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

Spain began 2026 with persistent storms, making it one of the wettest Januaries in decades. Unevenly distributed water gains, both geographically and over time, highlight hydroclimatic volatility as increasingly relevant to Spain’s outlook.

While global investment in renewables has doubled over the past decade, investment in power grids has increased by only 20%. In Spain, distribution grid congestion and renewable energy curtailment are consistent with a pattern of underinvestment.

Electricity grids are becoming a global bottleneck to the energy transition. Without faster, anticipatory investment, renewables and electrification will not reach their full potential. Digitalisation and storage help, but cannot substitute for grid expansion.

Europe has managed to bring inflation back to the ECB’s target without triggering a recession, although the challenge now is to keep it there in an environment that is more exposed to global shocks.

The Kaya identity is an analytical tool that helps to understand the behavior of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through four factors: population, GDP per capita, the energy intensity of the economy, and the emissions intensity of energy.