Publications

Inflation in Lima Metropolitana registered a historical increase of 2.38% month-over-month in March. This increase, the largest in 32 years, raised the year-over-year rate to 3.8%, surpassing the upper limit of the Central Bank's target range due to climate and energy factors.

Spain’s renewable-based power model has increased resilience to external energy shocks, especially at the wholesale level, but incomplete grid readiness, limited storage and high non-energy costs constrain how much of that advantage reaches final consumers.

The ECB is addressing the supply shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East by using economic scenarios. The institution is taking a watchful stance toward inflation risks and the persistence of energy prices to avoid second-round effects on the economy.

The quote “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” is attributed to Niels Bohr. Today, it is even more so in an environment of high uncertainty. The increase in costs caused by the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran will have negative effects on the Spanish economy.

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

Geopolitical crises do not automatically trigger energy transitions. They accelerate diversification only when economically viable and scalable substitutes already exist. Price spikes alone are insufficient; transition dynamics are shaped by shifts in perceived supply risk, technological readiness, and policy responses.

While global investment in renewables has doubled over the past decade, investment in power grids has increased by only 20%. In Spain, distribution grid congestion and renewable energy curtailment are consistent with a pattern of underinvestment.