Publications

Global Value Chains transition from hyper-efficiency to resilience in the face of geopolitical shocks and higher tariffs. Total decoupling from China is unrealistic due to its control of key inputs; connector countries like Mexico emerge that benefit from this reorganization.

Hard data show a faster deceleration in 4Q25, suggesting an annual GDP growth of around 3% and implying modest downside risk on our 3.7% forecast for 2025. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4%, but evaluate risks might turn upside given the easing bias of the CBRT and our expectation of a neutral fiscal balance.

Decelerated disinflation trend provides limited room for TL funding costs to fall noticeably; and for banks' NIMs to improve more gradually than expected. As banks will manage spreads with credit rates, newly introduced overdraft loan & credit card limitations are further tightening steps which will negatively impact P&Ls.

The effort to increase the military and security capabilities Europe needs will be more sustainable the more it supports economic growth.

GDP grew 3.8% in December 2025, exceeding expectations and bringing full-year growth to 3.4%. The strength of the non-primary component (construction and trade) offset the weakness in the primary sector, which was affected by lower mining output.

Colombia’s GDP rose 2.6% in 2025 in a domestic-demand rebound. Final consumption grew 4.2%, while investment was uneven—equipment surged but construction fell. Net exports subtracted as imports (+8.4%) outpaced exports (+1.8%).

Las medidas geoeconómicas de EEUU como barreras comerciales, sanciones y tarifas, junto con los importantes acontecimientos geopolíticos que se han producido a lo largo del año 2025, han provocado un fuerte aumento de la incertidumbre en materia de política económica y de las medidas de aversión al riesgo a nivel mundial