Publications

Household spending has emerged as Colombia’s main growth engine in 2025, driven by rising income, improving credit, strong remittances, and renewed consumer confidence. Despite early signs of labor market cooling, consumption remains the key economic driver.

The economy regained traction in line with expectations in 2Q25 (0.7% q/q) due mainly to the boost from private consumption and investment. The growth was accompanied by higher employment and effective hours worked, although mixed signals were observed in productivity.

locproj estimates linear and nonlinear Impulse Response Functions (IRF) based on the local projections methodology first proposed(LP) by Jordà (2005). The procedure allows for the easy implementation of several options used in the growing literature of LP.

Spain needs to recalibrate its fiscal policy to ensure a greater emphasis on spending in production, infrastructure, education, and new technologies. This would help boost long-term growth and improve well-being.

In 2024, Catalonia's GDP could have grown by 3.2%, and is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Going forward, the evolution of activity will be marked by the high uncertainty surrounding economic and tariff policies and the slow recovery in Europe.

GDP grew by 2,7 % year-on-year in May, exceeding both the market consensus (2,1 %) and April’s print (1,4 %). The non-primary component increased by 3,2 %, while the primary one once again declined, mining and fishing in particular.

Formal employment stagnated in June, closing Q2 with negative growth. This reflects weakness in key sectors, declining investment, and deteriorating expectations, all of which contribute to an adverse environment that could impede short-term labor market recovery.

The recent appreciation of the euro against the dollar—more than 10% since the lows at the beginning of the year—has shifted the price competitiveness of Spanish companies and the purchasing power of households.