Publications

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a general-purpose technology that will transform the economy and employment. It drives productivity and innovation by combining automation and complementarity. Its ultimate impact will depend on adoption, human capital, and regulation.

Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in January 2026, in line with the consensus, driven by non-primary GDP, particularly construction and commerce.

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

In March, the BCRP kept its rate at 4.25% for the sixth straight month, as expected by the market. Higher inflation reflects three transitory supply shocks. Monitoring inflation expectations will be key to sustaining the current neutral stance.

The Peruvian economy keeps showing a solid performance, supported by the dynamism of private spending. Recently, however, three negative supply shocks have affected it, driving down the output growth forecast for 2026 from 3,1 % to 2,9 %. In 2027, the supply shocks will have dissipated and GDP will grow by 3,1 %.

The CBRT maintained the policy rate (37.0%) and the bands of the interest rate corridor (35.5%-40.0%), parallel to the expectations. The CBRT seems to view the recent geopolitical risks as temporary and believes its current policy toolkit is sufficient to mitigate these risks for now.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.