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Colombia grew 2.6% in 2025, driven by domestic demand and remittances, but faces a growing fiscal deficit, rising inflation and weaker private investment. In a global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions and tariffs, the country needs fiscal adjustment and private investment to sustain its growth potential.

Globally, rice production is concentrated in Asia. In Colombia, the rice value chain accounts for 0.3% of value added, generates 1.1% of agricultural employment, and includes around 13,000 producers. High inventory accumulation represents a challenge for the sector. In 2026, lower planted areas and production are expected.

The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025 driven by exports, despite weak domestic demand and the real estate crash. 4.5% growth is expected for 2026, supported by stimuli and measures against industrial overcapacity. Reflation narrative is on the rise amid the Iran war.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)3.5% MoM decline in February (real, sa), with contractions in both goods and services segments.

Economic activity grew 3.5% year-on-year in January 2026, in line with the consensus, driven by non-primary GDP, particularly construction and commerce.

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

In March, the BCRP kept its rate at 4.25% for the sixth straight month, as expected by the market. Higher inflation reflects three transitory supply shocks. Monitoring inflation expectations will be key to sustaining the current neutral stance.