Europe | Narrow margin

Negative-leaning assessments are common when discussing the European economy, and natural gas is no exception. With summer now over, the ghosts of 2022 have returned, amid a failed ceasefire in the Middle East and storage levels at their lowest for this time of year. EU storage is around 68% full, although the picture varies considerably across the region: several northern countries are barely above 50%, while southern Europe, including Spain, enters the fall in a stronger position.

Under these conditions, timing matters as much as gas availability, as storage facilities have a maximum injection rate. Europe could therefore reach its seasonal peak with storage levels at just 75% of capacity, compared with 83% last year. Part of the problem dates back to the summer, when gas was expensive, there was little incentive to put it into storage, and markets were counting on the ceasefire to normalize flows. That hope has faded. Shipments from the Gulf, particularly Qatar, fell by more than 85% between March and August, and the disruption increasingly looks like more than a temporary setback.

The United States plays an unusual role in this market. Its vast production keeps domestic natural gas prices far below those in Europe and Asia while also cementing its position as a major exporter, helping ease pressure on the global market. Perhaps the clearest sign of how much the market has changed is that Qatar, one of the world’s largest gas exporters, is negotiating purchases of U.S. gas to meet its commitments to customers.

On the demand side, Europe is competing primarily with Asia for cargoes. China, Japan, and South Korea have cut imports by roughly 20%, while some emerging-market buyers are turning to coal, renewables, or domestic production. Asian gas prices are hovering around $25/MMBtu, and at these levels, buyers are estimated to have limited room to keep bidding prices higher. That could help put something of a ceiling on current European gas prices.

Winter will put that balance to the test, although Europe is starting from a position of lower gas consumption than in 2022 and has benefited from several consecutive mild winters. Forecasts once again point to relatively mild temperatures, with El Niño among the contributing factors, but relying too heavily on the weather is something of a gamble. With lower inventories, a cold winter, weak wind generation, or a rebound in Asian demand would force Europe to compete in an already tight market.

The main risk, then, does not appear to be running out of gas, but rather how much Europe will have to pay to secure it. Those costs will eventually reach households and weigh on an industrial sector already facing an energy-cost disadvantage relative to the United States and China, while governments have less fiscal room to repeat the subsidies introduced in 2022. Europe should be able to make it through the winter, but any surprises will come at a price.

Press article. Published in El País on September 20, 2026.