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Regional Analysis Mexico

Regional Analysis Mexico latest publications

November 19, 2020

Exchange rate effect and prices would decrease oil revenues, even with a larger production

The dynamics of nominal GDP (in USD) from oil mining are closely related to the oil revenues of the federal government. In Mexico, as a price-taker in the international market, such dynamics are determined by the evolution of oil prices, the volume of production and the exchange rate.

October 1, 2020

Mexico Real Estate Outlook. Second half 2020

We are currently in the midst of the worst economic crisis that Mexico has experienced in modern times. This has resulted in the sharpest declines in history and deeper impacts than those seen in 1995. Construction is not exempt, and the economic depression that the sector has been experiencing since 2018 has worsened.

September 30, 2020

Mexico | Mixed picture in August job creation

The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) reported that 92.4 thousand formal jobs were created in August, equivalent to 8.3% of the 1.1 million jobs lost from March to July. The weak recovery in employment could not stop the deterioration of the labor market in a generalized way.

September 24, 2020

Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. Second half 2020

A generalized fall, but still with opportunities. The sectoral structure has been maintained despite the economic contraction. Sectoral mix sets the tone for state performance.

August 25, 2020

Mexico | Global economic recession affects external accounts

Our forecasts indicate that the current account deficit will stabilize around 1.5% of GDP in the medium term and there will not be a structural problem for its financing.

August 20, 2020

Mexico | Tapping rainy funds in 2020 will cause more future vulnerability

The sharp annual drop in public revenue as of April, which is very likely to continue until March of 2021, will make the Ministry of Finance tap the main rainy funds for budgetary stabilization (FEIP and FEIF) to avoid more public spending cuts.

August 1, 2020

Mexico | GDP drops -53.2% annualized in 2Q20

The depth of the decline brings 2020 growth closer to the lower end of our forecast range, currently between -12.0% and -9.0%, in annual variation.

May 21, 2020

Mexico | Scenarios of the effects on poverty due to the Covid-19 crisis

The estimates made by ECLAC, Coneval and BBVA Research are presented on the effect that the current crisis by Covid-19 can have on the increase in poverty and extreme poverty levels in Mexico in 2020.