BBVA Research

GDP is forecast to remain close to 2%, while inflation is expected to hover around 4% ahead, following a marked deceleration in activity throughout 2025. As a net oil exporter, Brazil has limited exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, but it could still be negatively affected if tensions persist beyond a few weeks.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

Geopolitical crises do not automatically trigger energy transitions. They accelerate diversification only when economically viable and scalable substitutes already exist. Price spikes alone are insufficient; transition dynamics are shaped by shifts in perceived supply risk, technological readiness, and policy responses.

This analysis calculates the proximity (in km) of economic units in Mexico to commercial banking units (branches, ATMs, etc.), using georeferenced information as an indicator of "access" to financial products and services for the financial inclusion of establishments and businesses.

Spain began 2026 with persistent storms, making it one of the wettest Januaries in decades. Unevenly distributed water gains, both geographically and over time, highlight hydroclimatic volatility as increasingly relevant to Spain’s outlook.

The balance on non-oil merchandise showed a surplus of USD 10,411 million in 4Q25 after having posted a surplus of USD 2,289 million in the third quarter.