BBVA Research

In spite of the conflict, 2Q26 growth could surprise to the upside relative to our previous forecast as our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 3.0% y/y growth for 2Q26, indicating a quarterly growth of around 1.0–1.5%. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, with geopolitical tension as the key downside risk.

The Colombian economy accelerated in the second quarter, with GDP growth of 3.5% year-on-year, driven by domestic demand (+4.9%). This gap was covered by a 7.5% increase in imports, while exports fell. Public spending was a key, but temporary, driver.

Building on the analysis initiated in a previous study, the Working Paper describes and assesses the new elements of the Government’s proposal to reform the SFA contained in the draft agreement sent to the Autonomous Communities several weeks ago.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell 0.4% MoM in July, posting a 4.5% YoY contraction. The weakness in spending was driven by a decline in goods consumption (-1.9% MoM), while services spending increased 1.1% MoM.