BBVA Research

Argentina’s economy kept recovering in Q2 2025, driven by fiscal order, a re-monetization strategy, and a flexible exchange rate scheme. The outlook is still shaped by the electoral context and the challenge of ensuring lasting stability in a volatile global environment.

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

Uruguay faces a global context of uncertainty and low growth. Domestically, there is a slowdown in GDP, fiscal challenges, and sluggish consumption and investment. However, the external sector is resilient, inflation remains stable, and the peso is showing strength.

Domestic demand remains strong, despite some recent signs of moderation. However, the lagged effects of sharp monetary tightening—now mostly over—along with less expansionary fiscal policy and a less supportive global backdrop are expected to pave the way for a deceleration of both GDP growth and inflation.

Colombia’s economy gains traction through consumption and easing interest rates, while investment gradually recovers. Inflation is declining, yet fiscal risks persist. Global uncertainty—with trade and financial tensions—adds pressure. Moderate growth is forecast for 2025 and 2026.

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.

Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.