BBVA Research

Colombia’s economy gains traction through consumption and easing interest rates, while investment gradually recovers. Inflation is declining, yet fiscal risks persist. Global uncertainty—with trade and financial tensions—adds pressure. Moderate growth is forecast for 2025 and 2026.

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.

Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.

BBVA Research presents its new real estate sector report in two presentations: the first analyzes sales, supply, prices, rentals, and demographics; the second focuses on the structure of construction, financing, and sustainability. It includes sales projections, drivers, and trends through 2026.