BBVA Research

Housing demand will remain strong despite the decline in home sales in 2026 (-7.3%), but housing supply will remain insufficient, continuing to put upward pressure on prices. Grid congestion and growing competition for electricity access are already delaying new residential and economic developments.

On July 23, the USTR imposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies. Mexico faces an additional 10% tariff for failing to effectively enforce its ban on goods produced with forced labor, constituting a USMCA violation.

Climate damage functions translate acute and chronic hazards into economic losses, from asset-value damage to GDP impacts. As no single function captures every hazard or transmission channel, banks must carefully calibrate and combine them, avoiding double counting while accounting for uncertainty.

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty