BBVA Research

Argentina enters 2026 with further progress in macroeconomic stabilization, supported by fiscal balance, prudent monetary policy and greater FX flexibility. Growth is expected to be moderate, inflation to decline, and the recovery to remain uneven, with challenges in employment, reserves and policy sustainability.

Economic activity relies more on domestic demand and services, and with greater external risks, leading to growing divergences between regions.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.8% in 2025, and the expansion is expected to continue, with growth of 2.4% in both 2026 and 2027. The outlook remains favourable, although structural challenges persist in a more uncertain international environment than three months ago.

The Peruvian economy keeps showing a solid performance, supported by the dynamism of private spending. Recently, however, three negative supply shocks have affected it, driving down the output growth forecast for 2026 from 3,1 % to 2,9 %. In 2027, the supply shocks will have dissipated and GDP will grow by 3,1 %.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

We upgraded our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% (1.2% previously), supported by the sustained resilience of consumption and the anticipated gradual recovery in investment. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.