BBVA Research

The Brazilian economy has been losing momentum, reinforcing deceleration prospects. GDP is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, helping inflation ease to 4.8% by end-2025 and 3.7% by end-2026, paving the way for a monetary easing cycle from early 2026.

The Peruvian economy keeps performing solidly, supported by the strength of domestic demand. High terms of trade, the onset of new mining projects, and the recently approved pension funds withdrawal are expected to drive output growth to 3,1 % in both 2025 and 2026, despite the electoral uncertainty.

This document analyzes labor and wage inequalities between men and women in Mexico, with an initial contextualization and an international comparison with the OECD. Using ENOE data, it examines the persistence of existing gaps, while reviewing international recommendations and progress made in the financial sector.

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.

Domestic demand continues to slow; private consumption fell (-)0.1% as of June (YoY, cum.), while investment contracted (-)6.4%. We revise our 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.7%, supported by the favorable performance of the economy in 1H25, although expectations point to a slowdown in the second half of the year.

Our baseline scenario assumes the continuation of the restrictive policies prioritizing disinflation in the short term. Global financial volatility affecting demand for EM assets, Trump policies particularly impacting Europe, and increasing domestic unknowns are near term risks on the Turkish economy, keeping us cautious.

This edition of the QLMO analyzes labor market trends using data available through Q2 2025. It reviews the performance of key aggregate indicators and explores recent developments in the duration of employment relationships.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a YoY increase of 7,2% in August, reflecting a significant acceleration compared to the more moderate growth observed in the previous two months (2.3% y/y in July and 3.0% y/y in June).

In August, Social Security lost 199,300 contributors and unemployment rose by 21,900 due to seasonal factors. Once seasonally adjusted (SA), the number of contributors increased by 29,900 and the number of unemployed fell by 4,800. The share of temporary contracts in the General Regime stood at 13.7% (SA).

In July, remittances reached Mexico for 5,330 million, a 4.7% drop compared to the same month in 2024. From January to July 2025, remittances totaled $34.889 billion, a lower amount than what was received in 2024, and even lower than in 2023.