BBVA Research

Amid rising global uncertainty, trade tensions with the United States are resurfacing. As background, in 2018 the EU responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing levies of 25% on more than 180 products. This had a lasting effect on the pattern of Spanish imports, although the overall economic impact remained limited.

Spain and Europe face critical water resilience challenges due to climate threats, requiring strategic investments and policy actions to safeguard ecosystems, promote economic opportunities, and ensure long-term water supply sustainability.

In May 2025, remittances to Mexico fell 4.6 % compared to the same month of the last year, to 5,360 million dollars. In contrast, remittances to Guatemala (2,281 million, +15.2 %), Honduras (1,055 million, +19.1 %), and El Salvador (899 million, +17.7 %) reached record highs.

Argentina’s economy kept recovering in Q2 2025, driven by fiscal order, a re-monetization strategy, and a flexible exchange rate scheme. The outlook is still shaped by the electoral context and the challenge of ensuring lasting stability in a volatile global environment.

The sensitivity remains on growth and employment outlook, potentially generating a policy mix where monetary stance staying relatively tighter compared to our early March baseline scenario and fiscal policy not being able to be tightened as targeted in the Medium Term Program (MTP).

Uruguay faces a global context of uncertainty and low growth. Domestically, there is a slowdown in GDP, fiscal challenges, and sluggish consumption and investment. However, the external sector is resilient, inflation remains stable, and the peso is showing strength.

GDP is projected to grow by around 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, maintaining a pace close to the medium-term trend despite a slowdown. This deceleration will be largely driven by shifts in U.S. trade policy and the heightened uncertainty they have triggered.

Colombia’s economy gains traction through consumption and easing interest rates, while investment gradually recovers. Inflation is declining, yet fiscal risks persist. Global uncertainty—with trade and financial tensions—adds pressure. Moderate growth is forecast for 2025 and 2026.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.