BBVA Research

The Colombian electricity system stands out for its renewable matrix, high coverage, and regional resilience. Demand is growing steadily and supply is gradually advancing, in a context where diversification of sources and thermal backup will be key to maintaining reliability.

The midterm election results reaffirmed social backing for the administration's economic plan, driving an improvement in expectations consistent with our GDP growth forecasts of 4.5% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026. This supports the continuity of the fiscal-monetary anchor and the ongoing disinflation process.

The INE's updated regional GDP estimates for 2024 do not introduce significant changes to the growth hierarchy, which, as noted in September, was led by Murcia and the island regions.

GDP fell 0.3% QoQ in 3Q25, reflecting the persistent weakening of domestic demand, with less dynamism in private consumption, a slowdown in the real wage bill and sharp declines in gross fixed investment —affected by legal uncertainty, external volatility and the fiscal consolidation.

The economy continues to perform well. Domestic demand accelerated in the third quarter, driven by private spending. This positive momentum and pension funds withdrawals point to output growth reaching 3,3 % in 2025. A slight moderation is expected in 2026 amid electoral uncertainty, GDP growth easing to 3,1 %.

Between 2025 and 2027, GDP will be driven by domestic demand: resilient household consumption, supportive public spending and investment boosted by a healthier construction sector. Persistently high inflation, cautious monetary policy and a wide fiscal deficit weigh on the outlook.

Domestic headwinds including housing market crash, overcapacity, weak sentiments take the place of tariff war to be the dominant factors for China’s growth slowdown.

The global economy remains unstable but is faring better than expected. In Türkiye, we maintain our baseline with somewhat a restrictive policy mix in the short term; yet with a balance of risks evolving to a stickier inflation trend due to the prolonged process with more muted gains on expectations.

Argentina holds world-class mining potential. The development of lithium and copper, combined with the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), could increase production and multiply exports by five by 2032, consolidating the country's role in the global energy transition.

Financing in Mexico has been characterized by three main trends: i) the increase in resources allocated to companies; ii) the fade out of the accounting effect of the exchange rate on the balances of loan and deposit portfolios; and iii) the strengthening of retirement funds as the main source of domestic savings.