BBVA Research

Between 2025 and 2027, GDP will be driven by domestic demand: resilient household consumption, supportive public spending and investment boosted by a healthier construction sector. Persistently high inflation, cautious monetary policy and a wide fiscal deficit weigh on the outlook.

GDP growth will reach 2.9% in 2025 (0.1 pp less than forecast in October), while in 2026 and 2027 the expansion is expected to continue with increases of 2.4% (0.1 pp more than in October) and 2.0%, respectively. The outlook is positive, although significant structural challenges persist.

In this edition of the QLMO, we examine labour market developments using the information available up to Q3 2025. We review the main aggregate indicators and analyse the challenge of generational replacement.

The global economy remains unstable but is faring better than expected. In Türkiye, we maintain our baseline with somewhat a restrictive policy mix in the short term; yet with a balance of risks evolving to a stickier inflation trend due to the prolonged process with more muted gains on expectations.

In 2025, the automotive sector is accelerating its sales momentum, with strong growth in utility vehicles and in hybrid and electric models. Greater household purchasing power and a more appreciated exchange rate, among other supportive factors, sustain this trend and will keep driving sales in 2025 and 2026.

Argentina holds world-class mining potential. The development of lithium and copper, combined with the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), could increase production and multiply exports by five by 2032, consolidating the country's role in the global energy transition.

The total FX position of the economy continued to improve in 3Q25 (with the latest data of Aug25) due to an improvement in public sector’s FX position, led by the CBRT. The composition of external debt continues to shift between the public sector and the real sector.

Private consumption is set to grow by 3.3% in 2025, two-tenths higher than in 2024, and by 2.5% in 2026, driven by expected increases in household disposable income and wealth. Durable goods and services will continue to lead the expansion in spending.