BBVA Research

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyse labour market developments based on data available through Q2 2026. We take stock of the main aggregate indicators and examine occupational exposure to generative AI, as well as its relationship with the occupational structure of employment and labour market entry.

The report analyzes the undervaluation issue of the RMB. Based on the MB and BEER models, it concludes that while there indeed exists periods of undervaluation, its degree of undervaluation is significantly lower than often claimed.

Social Security affiliation fell by 162,800 people and unemployment grew by 44,400. Adjusted for seasonality, an estimated rebound of 74,000 contributors and 10,500 unemployed is estimated. The extraordinary regularization of immigrants may have added 211,000 foreign affiliates and 64,900 unemployed up to August.

Despite these gains, remittances declined by 6.5% in real terms in July, due to inflation and, primarily, the depreciation of the US dollar. Since reaching their peak in July 2022, remittances to Mexico have fallen by 24.8% in real terms, negatively affecting the income of recipient households over the past four years.

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y in 2Q26, below both our expectation (3%) and market consensus (2.9%), bringing growth in 1H26 to 2.5% y/y. Assuming a prudent policy mix going forward and no further escalation in geopolitical tensions, we maintain our 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2026 with limited downside risks now.

Mexico's current account recorded a surplus of USD 8.9 billion in 2Q26, driven by a record high in the non-oil merchandise balance. In contrast, Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) showed an annual decrease of 11.7% during the first half of 2026.