BBVA Research

Global trade remained strong early in the year, supported by the ongoing AI boom, despite tariffs and fading pharma front-loading effects. Middle East tensions pose a new risk to international flows.

The observatory analyzes the cyclical evolution of the Spanish economy and housing prices in 2025. GDP closed the year with solid growth (2.8%), supported by domestic demand (contributed 3.6 pp to growth), while the labor market remained strong. The rise in the relative price of housing stands out in the current cycle.

Construction GDP decreased by 1.0% in 2025. The mortgage market shrank by 2.9% in loan amount, explained by the decrease in banking activity and despite the growth of Infonavit.

The Turkish economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, while the disinflation process was maintained. 2026 is set to be a challenging year, with downside risks stemming in particular from the recent Middle East conflict; however, a well-calibrated policy mix could help mitigate these risks.