BBVA Research

The Turkish economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, while the disinflation process was maintained. 2026 is set to be a challenging year, with downside risks stemming in particular from the recent Middle East conflict; however, a well-calibrated policy mix could help mitigate these risks.

Argentina enters 2026 with further progress in macroeconomic stabilization, supported by fiscal balance, prudent monetary policy and greater FX flexibility. Growth is expected to be moderate, inflation to decline, and the recovery to remain uneven, with challenges in employment, reserves and policy sustainability.

The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025 driven by exports, despite weak domestic demand and the real estate crash. 4.5% growth is expected for 2026, supported by stimuli and measures against industrial overcapacity. Reflation narrative is on the rise amid the Iran war.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.8% in 2025, and the expansion is expected to continue, with growth of 2.4% in both 2026 and 2027. The outlook remains favourable, although structural challenges persist in a more uncertain international environment than three months ago.

GDP is forecast to remain close to 2%, while inflation is expected to hover around 4% ahead, following a marked deceleration in activity throughout 2025. As a net oil exporter, Brazil has limited exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, but it could still be negatively affected if tensions persist beyond a few weeks.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.