BBVA Research

GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.8% in 2025, and the expansion is expected to continue, with growth of 2.4% in both 2026 and 2027. The outlook remains favourable, although structural challenges persist in a more uncertain international environment than three months ago.

The Peruvian economy keeps showing a solid performance, supported by the dynamism of private spending. Recently, however, three negative supply shocks have affected it, driving down the output growth forecast for 2026 from 3,1 % to 2,9 %. In 2027, the supply shocks will have dissipated and GDP will grow by 3,1 %.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

We upgraded our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% (1.2% previously), supported by the sustained resilience of consumption and the anticipated gradual recovery in investment. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

This analysis calculates the proximity (in km) of economic units in Mexico to commercial banking units (branches, ATMs, etc.), using georeferenced information as an indicator of "access" to financial products and services for the financial inclusion of establishments and businesses.

Remittances to Mexico began 2026 with decline. In January, they totaled 4,594 million dollars, representing a 1.4% year-on-year decrease. Although the average amount per transfer increased to $401 (+3.9%), the number of transactions fell to 11.5 million, a 5.2% year-on-year decrease.