BBVA Research

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

We upgraded our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% (1.2% previously), supported by the sustained resilience of consumption and the anticipated gradual recovery in investment. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

This analysis calculates the proximity (in km) of economic units in Mexico to commercial banking units (branches, ATMs, etc.), using georeferenced information as an indicator of "access" to financial products and services for the financial inclusion of establishments and businesses.

Remittances to Mexico began 2026 with decline. In January, they totaled 4,594 million dollars, representing a 1.4% year-on-year decrease. Although the average amount per transfer increased to $401 (+3.9%), the number of transactions fell to 11.5 million, a 5.2% year-on-year decrease.

The balance on non-oil merchandise showed a surplus of USD 10,411 million in 4Q25 after having posted a surplus of USD 2,289 million in the third quarter.

This issue of the OTMT reviews labour market developments using data available through the fourth quarter of 2025. We assess trends in the main aggregate indicators and estimate the scale and characteristics of irregular employment in Spain.