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The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy reassumed its growth path at the beginning of the year.

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyze the labor market situation with data available up to the first quarter of 2024. We review the trends of the main indicators, examine the differences between the Labor Force Survey and administrative records, and highlight Spain's productivity deficit.

Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.

The BBVA Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator (MMI) fell (-)2.9% YoY in April, pointing to an extended slowdown in the sector amid the deceleration of external demand

Joint project with the IMF to analyze the evolution of e-commerce in Spain during and after Covid. The secular positive trend in e-commerce is well alive. The pandemic's boost was temporary with a moderating trend once the restrictions were lif…

Batteries will be pivotal in steering the global energy system towards a net zero emissions scenario. Meeting targets will hinge on whether the world can scale up batteries fast enough.

Conditions are favourable for boosting sector expansion and exports. Despite low domestic growth and weakening employment, lower relative prices will help domestic demand. Externally, a real depreciation higher than that of regional peers will favour exports.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator (BDCI) fell (-)2.0% MaM in April, with real figures adjusted for seasonality

According to BBVA credit card data, the first months of the year have been characterized by a slowdown in the growth of tourist spending in Spain compared to the last months of 2023, weighed down by the decline in consumption by Spaniards and d…

We summarize China’s Balance of Payments situation in 2023 post-pandemic time and compare it with the pandemic time; we also predict its trend in 2024.

By the end of 2023, the Mexican economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2%, with an extraordinary growth of 15.6% in construction and differentiated effects at the regional level. The dynamism of services underpins growth in 2023; Wholesale and Retail grew 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively.

At the end of 2023 we find opposite results in the Real Estate market. Construction presents historical results, growth rates well above the average in different indicators. The housing market is contracting with figures as of November 2023. In both cases, we estimate that in 2024 both sectors will reverse the trends

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Our most recent publications

Avocado is one of Mexico's main consumption and export products. We estimate the GDP of avocado from 2018 to 2022 by the production method using a deterministic approximation and official sources. The results are consistent with the growth that the product has experienced in production and monetary value in recent years.

Profitability of the sector is under pressure of high funding costs which continues to be partially offset by fees & commission income. Credit growth will be subdued due to regulationary caps in the very short term.

Israel faces waves of condemnation after a strike in Rafah camp. Spain, Ireland and Norway recognize Palestine as a State. Spain provided military support to Ukraine

The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy r…

Colombia's economy grapples with recovery challenges. Proposing an infrastructure plan to link regions, cut logistic costs, and drive housing, business hubs, and energy projects. Public-private collaboration is paramount.

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