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Formal employment in Mexico continues decelerating, growing 2.2% in May 2024, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Job creation is expected to pick up in the third quarter but at a slower pace than in 2023.

GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints in tourism growth.

Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…

We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monet…

The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prude…

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported an increase of 2.7% MaM in May, with real figures adjusted for seasonality; by components, the largest increase was recorded in the services segment, with a variation of 4.0%, while spending on goods grew 2.4%, after the contraction registered the previous month.

The Letta report provides a comprehensive assessment of the European Union's single market and contains a set of policy proposals for its future development. They have the potential to impact the European strategic agenda for the next few years, particularly to strengthen the green transition with targeted recommendations.

Profitability of the sector is under pressure of high funding costs which continues to be partially offset by fees & commission income. Credit growth will be subdued due to regulationary caps in the very short term.

In this edition of the QLMO, we analyze the labor market situation with data available up to the first quarter of 2024. We review the trends of the main indicators, examine the differences between the Labor Force Survey and administrative recor…

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Our most recent publications

After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.

Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.

China’s 2024 May economic activity indicators continue to display an unbalanced economic structure with strong supply and weak demand, although retail sales mildly picked up.

Netanyahu dissolved the war cabinet. Political noise is on the rise in France. Trump warnings on US aid to Ukraine if elected

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