Global trade is slowing after the initial rebound in early 2025. Still, volumes remain above 2024 levels. Mexico and several Asian economies stay dynamic, while China, Eurozone, and Canada show signs of moderation. Mexico continues to gain share in U.S. trade, driven by electronics despite declines in the automotive sector.

The Brazilian economy has been losing momentum, reinforcing deceleration prospects. GDP is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, helping inflation ease to 4.8% by end-2025 and 3.7% by end-2026, paving the way for a monetary easing cycle from early 2026.