Global | Chartbook of International Commerce. June 2026

Summary

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

Key points

• Key points:
• US tariffs declined to an average of 6.7% in April 2026, down from around 10% in the second half of 2025. However, recent developments suggest that a new wave of protectionist measures may be forthcoming. The US administration has signaled the possibility of raising tariffs on European Union automobiles by 10 percentage points, to 25%, and has indicated that new tariffs of at least 10% under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 could replace the temporary universal levies that, following the suspension of reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs, had contributed to the downward trend in US tariffs since late February 2026.
• Elevated US tariffs continue to weigh on global trade flows, accelerating the reconfiguration of international supply chains. This shift has been benefiting economies such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico, while contributing to a decline in US imports from China in particular, as well as from the Eurozone, Japan, and Brazil.
• Despite these headwinds, global trade remains resilient. In addition to tariff-related challenges, international commerce is now facing supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Nevertheless, higher energy exports from countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela are helping to offset reduced shipments from the Middle East. At the same time, elevated oil prices have strengthened demand for green technologies, providing additional support to China's exports.
• The global adoption of artificial intelligence is also becoming an increasingly important driver of international trade. US imports of AI-related products, particularly semiconductors, have risen sharply, helping to diffuse the benefits of the AI boom across a broader range of economies and reinforcing the momentum of global commerce.

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