BBVA Research

Climate damage functions translate acute and chronic hazards into economic losses, from asset-value damage to GDP impacts. As no single function captures every hazard or transmission channel, banks must carefully calibrate and combine them, avoiding double counting while accounting for uncertainty.

Argentina’s economy continues to consolidate its macroeconomic stabilization. While the external sector is gaining strength through the contribution of energy and mining, the main challenge remains extending the recovery to employment, incomes, and the more lagging sectors of the economy.

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty

Educational inequalities in Mexico are examined through an analysis of educational lag between 2004 and 2024 and the estimation of a probit model using data from the 2024 ENIGH survey to quantify their main determinants based on individual, household, and contextual characteristics.

In this edition of the QLMO, we assess recent labour market developments using the information available through Q1 2026. We review the main aggregate indicators and explore a number of issues related to working conditions, immigration, and youth emancipation.

Tourism maintained solid growth in the first four months of 2026, although with some moderation compared to the end of 2025. Total tourist spending grew by 4.7% year-on-year, driven especially by foreign tourism and the dynamism of destinations in the north and interior of the peninsula.