Argentina | BBVA Big Data Consumption Tracker (Sep 23, 2021)

Summary

In the first half of September, consumption with credit cards recovered an average of 16% YoY in real terms, which is barely enough to reach the same level as before the pandemic. The different categories are showing signs of tiredness. Our evidence points to a moderate 3Q21 performance.

Key points

• Key points:
• Services continued to recover ground over goods as sanitary measures that mainly affect attendance, transportation and leisure are being relaxed.
• The different categories are running out of steam as they approach or reach Jan-Feb 2020 levels.
• INDEC confirmed the 2Q'21 YoY GDP increase captured by our fuel consumption indicator for the same period although with a higher power, in line with market consensus.
• Our real time indicator is anticipating a YoY industry increase for the month of August, which will be known from official sources next month.
• Compared to the tracking of other BBVA Group countries, the improvement in total card consumption in Argentina continues to be too weak to exceed in a sustained and robust way the level reached before the onset of the pandemic.

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