Argentina | July inflation was 2.1% m/m, above expectations

Summary

Argentina's national inflation in July was 2.1% month-on-month (33.8% y/y), exceeding expectations. This acceleration was mainly driven by seasonal price dynamics during the winter holidays. The 2026 inflation forecast is maintained at 29%, with an upward bias.

Key points

• Key points:
• Core inflation was 1.8% m/m, remaining below 2% for the third consecutive month, which supports the disinflation expectation.
• Regulated prices increased by 2.1% m/m (44% y/y), decelerating for the fourth month. The main drivers were Healthcare (2.5% m/m) and Communications (2.4% m/m).
• Seasonal prices rose by 4.5% m/m, driven by a surge in vegetables (7.6% m/m) and Recreation and Culture (5.0% m/m).
• August inflation is projected to slow to 1.8% m/m. For year-end 2026, inflation is expected to be 29% y/y, with a monthly average of 1.6% in the remaining months.

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