Argentina | Real-time consumption monitoring (May 5, 2021)

Summary

Despite the YoY peak in consumption growth, spending levels have not been able to return to pre-pandemic figures. Activity is forecast to increase in March and April, compared to 2020, contrary to what is expected to happen with supermarket purchases.

Key points

• Key points:
• Total consumption, after the 4Q20 recovery, retreated and remained almost 10% below the February 2020 record on average over the last 60 days.
• According to our fuel consumption indicator, we expect that the economic activity grow in March and April 2021 YoY.
• The total consumption indicator with cards forecasts a stagnation of industrial activity according to its electricity consumption.
• The official drop in supermarket purchases in real terms for February 2021 ratified the behavior captured by our spending indicator. We expect the retraction to deepen significantly in March.
• The rise in cases of COVID-19 infections and the consequent sanitary measures caused a significant drop in consumption.

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