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Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

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Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.


Summary

  • Belgium and Turkey were downgraded by Fitch. Hungary was upgraded by Moody’s and Iceland by S&P. Tunisia downgraded by Fitch
  • Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board, with some peaks during the quarter due to the uncertainty about the new US Administration policies. Most measures of GRA are reaching levels not seen since the spring of 2014
  • The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries
  • The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm, but it was also felt in the rest of EMs
  • China, Mexico and Portugal are the countries facing the largest downgrade pressure.
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