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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2016

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Turkey was downgraded by S&P and Moody’s. Hungary and Korea were upgraded by S&P. Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion and sovereign CDS have all been trending downwards since the turmoil at the beginning of the year. China still faces the largest downgrade pressure from the markets, that has significantly risen for Portugal.


Summary

  • Turkey was downgraded by S&P and Moody’s. Hungary and Korea were upgraded by S&P. Slovenia and Iceland were also upgraded.
  • Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion and sovereign CDS have all been trending downwards since the turmoil at the beginning of the year.
  • China still faces the largest downgrade pressure from the markets, that has significantly risen for Portugal. Markets signal a possible upgrade for Czech Rep. and India.
  • Global leverage evolution is shaped by China. We estimate that the global leverage excess (credit-gap) reached in 2015 the same levels than in 2009 due to mounting leverage in China and its growing share in the World’s economy.
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