Published on Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Global | Global trade stabilizes despite LatAm slowdown and European stagnation
Summary
In May 2025, global trade stabilizes, with Asia leading and Europe remaining stagnant. Latin America loses momentum, except for Peru. Mexico stands out in the U.S. despite tensions, while Canada diversifies. Trade flows remain resilient but moderate amid rising uncertainty and new trade barriers
Key points
- Key points:
- Global trade stabilized in May 2025, following the strong rebound in Q1. Key indicators (BBVA Trade Index, Baltic Dry, CPB, ISL) show resilient flows, though with signs of moderation and geographic reconfiguration
- Asia continues to lead the expansion, driven by sustained momentum from China, India, and Korea. Latin America is losing steam—except for Peru—while Europe remains stagnant, with no clear recovery in sight
- North America shows mixed trends: Mexico strengthens its position as the top U.S. supplier despite tensions in autos and agriculture; Canada decouples from the U.S. and diversifies its trade. U.S. exports fell 6% M/M%, affected by tariff-driven distortions
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Global
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
Tags
Documents and files
Authors
CP
Cecilia Posadas
BBVA Research - Principal Economist
MJ
Miguel Jiménez
BBVA Research - Lead Economist
Was this information useful?