Global | When he woke up, climate change was still there

Summary

In 2026, climate change will largely remain the same: its impacts will keep growing, as will the policies aimed at reducing them, although with diminishing momentum. We will need to keep a close eye on global climate governance, on securing more funding for adaptation, and on whether clean innovation delivers any surprises.

Key points

• Key points:
• Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising (more slowly), temperatures are increasing (more rapidly), and the tally of storms, floods, and droughts keeps growing.
• Something very similar is happening with emissions mitigation policies: an OECD analysis shows that they are becoming more numerous and more stringent, although the pace of their expansion is slowing.
• And policies matter—decarbonization does not happen through economic development alone. The unstoppable penetration of solar and wind power would not have been possible without a combination of innovation, competition, and incentives.
• A recent BBVA Research study (Do Climate Policies Deliver?) shows that there is a statistically significant relationship between greater stringency of climate mitigation policies and a decline in emissions per unit of GDP.
• In 2026, we will need to pay attention to what we already know will remain relevant (global climate governance), to what we know needs to accelerate (climate adaptation), and to what we know we do not know—not only in terms of risks, but also in terms of opportunities that may come with innovation and disruption in clean technologies.

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