Mexico| GDP grew 0.7% in 2025, ending the year with support from industry and services

Summary

GDP grew by 0.7% in 2025 (BBVA 0.7%, consensus 0.4%), with a positive performance in 4Q25 (0.8% QoQ), driven by stronger momentum in industry and the tertiary sector (both 0.9% QoQ).

Key points

• Key points:
• Growth in 4Q25 points to a gradual improvement in economic activity, with resilience in the services sector, a gradual recovery in manufacturing, and the fading of the negative base effect in construction.
• Within the tertiary sector, professional and business support services showed the strongest momentum.
• In industry, the automotive sector showed positive signals toward the end of 2025, supported by improved demand for vehicles and auto parts in the U.S., as well as continued growth in the production of computer and communications equipment (driven by higher investment in artificial intelligence in the US).
• We expect a gradual improvement in economic activity in 2026 (BBVA 1.2%), with a progressive recovery in consumption; investment will continue to be the weakest component of domestic demand until the prevailing uncertainty of the past year dissipates.

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