Publications

In February 2026, outstanding credit granted to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) continued to slowdown, reaching a new low since 2022 (1.4% YoY in real terms), driven by a weak corporate lending. Deposits growth recovered to 2.1% YoY in real terms, despite currency appreciation.

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell (-)0.6% MoM (real, sa) in March, marking its third consecutive decline in 2026.

Construction GDP decreased by 1.0% in 2025. The mortgage market shrank by 2.9% in loan amount, explained by the decrease in banking activity and despite the growth of Infonavit.

The 2027 Preliminary General Economic Policy Guidelines maintain a responsible fiscal stance, but they rely on more optimistic assumptions than the market, which increases the risk of failing to meet fiscal targets.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 4.0% YoY in February, moderating the dynamism observed in the first month of the year, although remaining in positive territory for the sixth consecutive month.

Looking ahead, we think the timing of the final rate cut will depend on external conditions. Under our baseline of a short-lived conflict, and with Banxico’s test for second-round effects from this year’s fiscal changes now met, most Board members may prefer to wrap up the easing cycle and deliver a final 25bp cut in May.

If inflation expectations remain well anchored, a pause driven by a supply-driven shock could prove counterproductive given policy lags, potentially leaving the stance tighter than desired once these pressures dissipate.