Most recent posts from Mexico

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 51.0% in June 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.

GDP grew by 1.5% QoQ in 2Q26, bringing cumulative growth in the first half of the year to 1.2% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect the World Cup-related boost to fade, with weak domestic demand once again becoming the main driver of the outlook.

On July 23, the USTR imposed new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies. Mexico faces an additional 10% tariff for failing to effectively enforce its ban on goods produced with forced labor, constituting a USMCA violation.

In May 2026, outstanding bank credit to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) grew by 1.5% year-on-year in real terms, supported by consumer lending, although regional performance remained uneven. Meanwhile, bank deposits in Mexico regained momentum, posting 2.2% real annual growth, outperforming previous months.

In June, formal employment in Mexico grew by 2.0% annually (IMSS). Excluding digital platform workers, effective growth is only 1.0%. This confirms a limited labor market recovery and a constrained impact from the 2026 World Cup.

Although the USMCA remains in force until 2036, its annual reviews and its lower level of investment protection compared with other treaties reinforce the importance of a stable regulatory framework, reliable institutions, and the rule of law to provide long-term certainty required to attract investment to Mexico.

The U.S. decision not to extend the USMCA confirms our baseline scenario that the agreement will remain in force. The USMCA will remain in force until 2036 unless all three parties agree to extend it.