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    BBVA Research Publications

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    February 12, 2025

    Mexico | Financial Regulation. January 2025

    We present a summary and analysis of the most relevant developments and publications in Mexico's financial regulatory landscape.

    February 7, 2025

    Mexico | FDI increased in the manufacturing sector in 3Q24

    As of the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), the trade deficit is 11 billion dollars. In the same period, foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to flow to Mexico. Through 3Q24, the country has attracted 35.7 billion dollars, a slight increase of 1.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.

    February 7, 2025

    Mexico | For now, Mexico is successful at avoiding tariffs

    On Monday, February 3, the heads of state of Mexico and the US reached an agreement to put on hold for a month the imposition of tariffs that the White House pretended to apply to imports coming from Mexico.

    February 6, 2025

    Mexico | Banxico speeds up easing pace, strikes a more dovish tone

    It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.

    February 5, 2025

    Mexico | With the tariff threat in pause, a 50bp rate cut now seems very likely

    Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.

    February 5, 2025

    Mexico | Public debt increases by almost 5 percentage points of GDP in 2024

    The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect this indicator of public debt-to-GDP ratio to be 53.1% at year-end.

    February 2, 2025

    Mexico | 25% tariffs on Mexico: unlikely to be long-lasting

    On February 1, the White House announced that it would impose tariffs of 25% on imports (not all imports, which leaves open the question of whether they will be selective) on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China (in addition to those already faced).

    January 30, 2025

    Mexico | GDP fell (-)0.6% QoQ in 4Q24; the biggest drop in the industry since the pandemic

    The GDP data is in line with our forecast (BBVA -0.7%, consensus -0.2%), and confirms the extended weakness of the secondary sector

    January 22, 2025

    Mexico | Trump 2.0 Mass Deportation: A Low Probability Event

    On the first day of the Trump 2.0 administration, at least 7 executive orders or proclamations were issued regarding immigration issues, highlighting the importance of this issue for his government.