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    BBVA Research Publications

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    May 16, 2025

    Mexico | Banxico remains focused on growth headwinds, signals another 50bp cut in June

    A key indication that Banxico's primary concern has shifted from inflation to growth is its acknowledgment, for the first time, that “since the inflationary episode has been left behind,” the fight against inflation is at a new stage.

    May 15, 2025

    Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. First Half 2025

    At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.

    May 13, 2025

    Mexico | Private Spending Slows in April Due to Uncertainty

    The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a (-)0.7% MoM drop in April, due to a contraction in the goods segment (-1.3%)

    May 13, 2025

    Mexico | Banxico set to deliver another 50bp cut despite signs of slower disinflation

    In contrast to the Fed, who held rates unchanged last week, Banxico has room to continue cutting rates. A low exchange rate pass-through and deeper domestic capital markets grant Banxico greater policy independence from the Fed than in the past.

    May 12, 2025

    Mexico | Limited formal employment growth in April amid a challenging economic environment

    The slowdown in formal employment in Mexico deepened in April, driven primarily by declining investment and growing business distrust. The contraction in key economic sectors and economic uncertainty point to weak job creation throughout the year.

    May 6, 2025

    Mexico | Oil-related income falls sharply below budget in 1Q25

    The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 53.0% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.

    May 4, 2025

    Mexico | US tariff adjustments: less trade protectionism with Mexico

    On April 29, President Trump signed an executive order and a proclamation that modified the current tariffs related to security, immigration, the automotive industry, steel, and aluminum. These changes eliminate tariff stacking and provide rebates for the automotive sector.