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In May 2025, remittances to Mexico fell 4.6 % compared to the same month of the last year, to 5,360 million dollars. In contrast, remittances to Guatemala (2,281 million, +15.2 %), Honduras (1,055 million, +19.1 %), and El Salvador (899 million, +17.7 %) reached record highs.

Global uncertainty, especially on geopolitical and commercial issues, has been creating a complex and atypical environment for Latin America in 2025. This has led to high market volatility, caution from monetary policy, and broader than normal ranges when forecasting economic variables.

Mexican MSMEs have advanced in financial inclusion, but gaps in credit access and digitalization remain. Micro and women-led businesses face greater barriers. Strategic support is essential to fully integrate them into economic development.

Despite core inflation breaching Banxico’s tolerance band, most Board members are likely to remain forward-looking, as weakening domestic demand is expected to continue weighing on consumption and therefore support a downward trend in services inflation.

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 2.0% YoY in May, bringing the average year-over-year growth variance for the first five months of the year to 5.0% (vs. 1.0% in the same period last year).

In April 2025, the fade out of the exchange rate depreciation influenced the lower dynamism of the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the SPNF (8.2% YoY in real terms) and the balance of traditional bank deposits (6.1% YoY in real terms).

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

Amid a proposal to create a special tax in the United States on remittances sent abroad, the Bank of Mexico announced the amount of remittances sent to Mexico in April 2025, which was $4,761.2 million.