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April 3, 2020

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. March 2020

The credit granted by banks remained the main source of funding for the private sector. Financial intermediaries have granted one third of the formal loan portfolio to mortgage loans over the past five years. Portfolio balances mirror patterns of economic activity at the end of 2019.

April 3, 2020

Mexico | Gloomy outlook for public finances in 2020 and 2021

The 2021 Pre-Criteria guidelines for economic policy emphasizes the need to keep fiscal discipline; we think this should be done from a structural perspective to make it possible to boost public spending alongside a credible fiscal reform proposal that increases tax revenue and comes into effect after the sanitary emergency

April 3, 2020

Mexico | March inflation forecast: downward pressures will outweigh upward pressures

We expect headline inflation to post a mild 0.07% MoM increase in March (3.37% YoY, down from 3.70% in February), with core increasing 0.27% MoM (3.58% YoY, down from 3.66%).

April 1, 2020

Remittances to Mexico could fall 17% in 2020 and recover between 2023-2028 due to Covid-19

Due to the uncertainty regarding its duration, it is difficult to estimate the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on the flow of remittances to Mexico. This article makes an estimate based on the effects of the past global financial recession of 2008/2009 on remittance flows. Three scenarios are presented.

March 26, 2020

Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. First half 2020

Services slow down and industry falls in 2019. Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast, USMCA will boost Bajío and Norte.

March 25, 2020

Mexico | Impact of Covid-19 on the economy: inaction is more dangerous than overreaction

This is a time when decisions must be made quickly; what is decided will have significant consequences. Drastic measures to ensure that people isolate are urgent, “desirable” and absolutely necessary.

March 23, 2020

Mexico | 11.8 million employees excluded from health and income below the poverty line

In a context of economic recession and health crisis, the impact on the labor market is widespread, however, it has a greater impact on the most vulnerable workers with low-income levels and excluded from social security.

March 20, 2020

Mexico | GDP contraction is inevitable; the decisions made will determine severity

The outbreak of Covid-19 will have a significant negative impact on economies at a global level with generalized shocks on supply and demand, therefore, we revised our GDP growth forecast to -4.5%. Fiscal objectives have to take second place; the most urgent is to underpin health systems and support workers.