Spain | First analysis of consumption after the disruption of rail traffic

Summary

Following the disruption of rail traffic between Madrid and Andalusia, no significant aggregate impacts on total consumption in the affected provinces have been observed so far. However, there are emerging signs of a slowdown in bilateral trade between Madrid and these regions.

Key points

• Key points:
• In-person spending with Spanish cards in the affected provinces grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with a difference of close to +2 pp compared to the rest of Spain.
• Spending with foreign cards increased by 3.2% year-on-year, which points to a limited impact on international tourism in the short term.
• Spending associated with interprovincial domestic tourism (non-resident BBVA clients) increased by 8.7% year-on-year, maintaining a high positive differential.
• In contrast, bilateral flows between Madrid and affected provinces show a slowdown: spending by residents in Madrid moderated its growth and spending by Andalusian residents in Madrid fell by 1.5% year-on-year.

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