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The economy of Valencian Community grew by 2.1% in 2018 and will advance by 2.0% in 2019 and by 1.4% in 2020. This will add around 74,000 new jobs in the biennium, although the risks are numerous and some of them are more likely now. The employment level will be 6.4 percentage points below the pre-crisis level
Social security affiliation increased by 106,500 people (2.3% YoY) and unemployment by 97,900 (-2.4% YoY). Once seasonality is accounted for, mixed signals are observed in labor market: employment gained dynamism and grew by 39,000 people, but unemployment registered its third non-consecutive growth in 2019 (13,000 people)
The Spanish economy grew 0.4% QoQ (2.0% YoY) in 3Q. According to the flash estimate, the domestic demand explained the increase (1.1pp QoQ; 1.8pp YoY), thanks to the recovery in consumption and investment. On the contrary, the external demand dragged down growth (-0.7pp QoQ; 0.2pp YoY), due to the strong rebound of imports
Regions with less income should have the highest growth rates. Capital is scarce in the more disadvantaged regions, which means higher profitability. In theory, this should encourage investment; but is that what has happened during crisis and recovery in Spain?
Aragon keeps its tendence of slower GDP growth.It could grow 2.0% in 2019 and 1,5% in 2020, given renewed commercial tensions and plenty of risks remain.
The public pension system is a basic pillar of the welfare state. The Spanish system is perfectly viable and sustainable, provided that it adapts to ongoing economic, social and demographic changes in Spanish society.
August data showed a recovery in home sales and mortgage credit. Thus, after a period of regulatory uncertainty, the sector could be gaining traction. In addition, after the correction last May, construction activity recovered levels of previous months