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The GDP of Murcia may shrink by 10% this year and grow by 6% in 2021. Almost 6,000 jobs could be destroyed. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous in the first half of the year, as was the recovery. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but the risks bias the outlook downwards.
Affiliation increased by 31,600, but did not prevent an upsurge in unemployment (25,300). Discounting negative seasonality, employment grew by 81,000, 24,000 more than in October, while unemployment stopped its downward trend (7,000). The impact of the crisis is still substantial: -790,000 affiliates and 760,000 unemployed.
This Economic Watch assesses the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. This is done using the data observed up to 3Q20 and the (2020) forecasts by BBVA Research for 4Q20, which are exogenous to the model.
Current global circumstances will enable the recovery of the Spanish economy to continue in 2021 and will mean that the speed of this recovery depends almost entirely on how successfully national public policies and the private sector manage their way out of the crisis.
The GDP of Andalusia may shrink by 11.8% this year and grow by 6.1% in 2021, losing 90,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous by sectors, urban areas and personal characteristics. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but risks push the perspectives downward.
November 30, 2020
Spain | Evolution of autonomous community financing under the common system, 2002-2018
This Working Paper establishes homogenized series of regional financing, based on homogeneous competencies and fiscal effort, between 2002 and 2018.
Imports have been less affected by COVID-19 than expected. In the first half of the year, the adjustment shifted to goods produced within the country and, to a lesser extent, on purchases from the rest of the world. Similarly, during the recovery process, the momentum of imports is proving to be more moderate.
The GDP of Madrid may shrink by 11.3% this year and grow by 5.4% in 2021, losing 29,000 jobs. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous by sectors, municipalities and personal characteristics. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but risks push the perspectives downward.