Türkiye | Monthly Banking Outlook, February 2026

Summary

Decelerated disinflation trend provides limited room for TL funding costs to fall noticeably; and for banks' NIMs to improve more gradually than expected. As banks will manage spreads with credit rates, newly introduced overdraft loan & credit card limitations are further tightening steps which will negatively impact P&Ls.

Key points

• Key points:
• After the end of the year campaigns, loan interest rates have gone up with the start of 2026, particularly in consumer segment compared to Dec25. Jan & Feb CPI confirmed the impact of still resilient demand and distorted pricing behavior which will not allow deposit & credit rates to go down noticeably in the ST.
• Credit growth decelerated in January, both in commercial and consumer credits. As the interest rates in both segments behaved very volatile in January, growth rates followed the same path; however, still with consumer loan growth remaining higher than commercial loans, as well as than the CPI trend.
• The tolerance range for the TL deposit rule targets has been further eased temporarily for the current period ending by March 13th, as the valuation impact of gold and other precious metals and demand for FC deposits have been weighing on the ratios. How much currency volatility will be allowed together with the disinflation trend, will be key for the duration of maintaining the required TL deposit shares.
• Recent limitations on credit cards will additionally negatively impact NIIs in terms of volume as the unused limits of cards is around 80% of total limits; and also indirectly impact the fee revenues which have been an important supporting factor in P&Ls of banks.
• The recent BRSA restructuring decision will likely have a further easing impact in 1Q26 supporting the NPL and CoR pressure, and hence P&L. However, the overall net impact on NPL flows might be very limited due to deferred NPL deterioration from the restructured balances, transferring into higher CoR levels in 2026.

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