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FC adjusted weekly credit growth continued to decelerate for the 2nd week in a row; and turned into negative growth from 1% to -0.06% due to significant deceleration in both commercial and consumer credits in the sector.

After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%. Yet, lagged effects might put 2025 GDP growth under pressure.

The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prude…

FC adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated from 1.6% to almost 1% in the week ending by May 31st due to commercial credits in private banks.

Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year e…

Turkish economy grew by 5.7% y/y in 1Q above the market consensus of 5.5% but lower than our expectation of 6%. Given the strong performance of 1H24 and lagged effects of expected fiscal consolidation and monetary policy, risks start to be tilted to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%.

FC adjusted weekly credit growth accelerated strongly from 0.1% to 1.6% in the week ending by May 24th mainly due to both consumer and commercial credits in private banks.

Profitability of the sector is under pressure of high funding costs which continues to be partially offset by fees & commission income. Credit growth will be subdued due to regulationary caps in the very short term.

FC adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated further to 0.1% in the week ending by May 17th due to consumer credits in public banks.

The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemmin…

Foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated further to 0.3% in the week ending by May 10th. This is due to both commercial and consumer credits in public banks. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend fell from 36.4% to 35.1%.

The key point remains to be suppressing consumption since the slow-down in domestic demand is still limited and aggregate demand remains stronger than supply. We eliminate our previous downward bias on 2024 GDP forecast (3.5%) and get ready to have a downward revision on our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2024.