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Turkish economy grew by 4.0% y/y in 4Q23 (vs. 3.6% exp. and consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 4.5% in 2023. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, for which we envisage pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows will be supportive.

In the week ending by February 16, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated to 0.2% from 0.5% due to consumer credits of public banks and commercial credits of private banks. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose from 27.2% to 27.5% due to carry-over impact of the final weeks of January.

The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the policy rate at 45% as expected. We maintain our call of keeping 45% policy rate throughout the year with a bias tilted to the upside.

Despite the suppression in core NIM, fees and commissions income, income from capital markets and FC transactions supported profitability of the sector in 2023. Regulatory capital ratios remain above the regulatory thresholds, though with incre…

In the week ending by February 9, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated to 0.5% from 0.7% due to consumer credits in private banks. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose from 25.4% to 27.2% due to carry-over impact o…

In the first inflation report of the year, the Central Bank (CBRT) maintained their interim inflation targets (36% by end 2024 and 14% by end 2025). We expect the policy rate at 45% throughout the year although the possibility of a rate hike above 45% remains.

We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.5% after realizing nearly 4.5% in 2023.

Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now ex…

In the week ending by January 26, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth accelerated sharply and turned from negative growth to 0.8% due to both commercial and consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend fell…

We expect GDP growth to materialize closer to 4.5% in 2023 and decelerate to nearly 3.5% in 2024, where the fiscal stance and the size of capital inflows will be decisive. Leading indicators show that domestic demand remains stronger than suppl…

In the week ending by January 19, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth decelerated and turned to negative growth from 0.4% to -0.1% due to consumer credits of public banks. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend fell from 25.6% to 24.5%.

Foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4% mainly due to consumer credits of private banks in the week ending by January 12. However, total credits’ 13-week annualized trend fell slightly due to carry over impact.