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Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP growth to be 3% with the expected boost in the first half of the year.

Industrial production (IP) once again surprised to the downside and grew 0.4% y/y in September (vs. 3% expected), implying a very sharp deceleration with 2.5% y/y in 3Q (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and 3% in 2023 with the help of potential boost before the elections.

Consumer price inflation accelerated further by 3.54% in October, parallel to market expectations but below our expectation (4.5%), which led to an annual inflation of 85.5%. We expect consumer inflation to remain in the range of 65% to 70% at …

Industrial production (IP) surprised to the downside and grew 4.1% y/y in August, implying 3.7% y/y in July-August period (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP growth of 0.5-1% for 3Q, while we maintain our 2022 GDP …

We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to comp…

Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.

Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.

Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these…

Turkish economy grew by 7.6% y/y in 2Q22, resulted in 7.5% y/y GDP growth in the first half of 2022. We keep our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5%, on the grounds of the recent high realization in the first half and authorities’ bias to maintain…

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 8.5% y/y in cal. adj. terms in June. Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP contraction of near 1% as of early August, while we maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at …

Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down to near 70% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by loose economic policies and significantly deteriorating inflation expectations.