Filter all of our publications to find the ones about the geography you are most interested in.
Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sector.
After the local election results, we expect the maintenance of current economic policies with more aggressive tightening in the short term. Therefore, expected additional restrictive measures might generate downside risk on our short term inflation (45% by 2024 end) and growth (3.5% for 2024) forecasts.
In the week ending by March 29th, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth continued to accelerate from 0.7% to 1% due to commercial credits of public banks and consumer credit cards in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend …
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradu…
In the week ending by March 22nd, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth rose from 0.3% to 0.7% due to consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend hovers around 35%.
Foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth fell from 1% to 0.3% due to both commercial and consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose slightly from 34.4% to 35% with the impact of strong weekly growth rates of the previous 4 weeks.
The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated developments in credit growth and deposit rates.
After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-electi…
In the week ending by March 8, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth remained at around 1%. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose from 29.4% to 34.4% due to impact of strong weekly growth rates of the last 3 weeks.
Credit growth accelerated on the week ending by March 1 due to commercial credits of both public and private banks. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend rose from 27.7% to 29.4%.
After increased concerns on inflation outlook and uncertainty ahead of the local election, there has been additional stress on the Turkish financial markets most recently. We expect more restrictive policies going forward, which will keep the current stabilization program on course.
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
