Türkiye | Monthly Banking Sector Outlook. January 2026

Summary

As financial conditions became more supportive in 4Q25, credit growth has gained momentum in both retail and TL commercial segments. The CBRT has relaxed the TL deposit rules which will positively affect NIMs together with the expected fall in interest rates in 2026.

Key points

• Key points:
• The credit growth stems from mainly non-capped items, such as credit cards and overdraft loans. Non-SME TL commercial loans also supported the overall growth in Dec25.
• Credit growth caps & deposit rules will likely be in place in 2026 in order not to allow a speeding up dollarization and also to keep demand recovery limited. As a by-product extended period of regulations, the structure of the sector’s loan book has shifted more on consumer loans and credit cards since 2021.
• Return for TL deposits and MMFs stay above USDTRY depreciation trend, but household inflation expectations still require high incentives for holding TL. Despite maintaining a controlled dollarization ratio of 40%, residents’ gold demand has been increasing with the surge in international gold prices.
• The pick up in NPL ratios has started to gain pace most recently, in credit cards and SMEs specifically, which will likely be transferred into higher CoR levels in 2026. On the other hand, banks’ high levels of provisions will help as a buffer.
• Capital ratios improved further to 19% in November supported by mainly the profit levels in the sector. Increase in capital levels was stronger in public banks.

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