Türkiye | Monthly Banking Sector Outlook. March 2026

Summary

In addition to being constrained by credit growth caps, financial conditions have tightened again in March, led by the conflict in the Middle East. The current outlook signals the continuation of high interest rates and of the controlled credit growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• Highly unanchored inflation expectations continue to signal ongoing consumer demand, with consumer loan growth still outpacing commercial lending.
• However, limitations introduced further for overdraft loans and credit cards decelerated consumer lending in March; and the trend rates of consumer and commercial credits started to converge at around low-30% levels.
• The CBRT’s timely reactions have so far prevented a domestic confidence shock, with limited dollarization tendency. The CBRT aims to keep TL rates as attractive as possible to preserve residents’ savings mostly in TL assets.
• The RoE of the deposit banks might stay flattish in 2026 (vs. 26% by end 2025, our previous expectation of 28-31%. Therefore, the expectation on positively real RoE levels might be delayed further.
• The removal of the BRSA forbearance for capital adequacy calculation as of Jan26 caused a sharp decline in the capital adequacy ratios. Net income improvements and external debt issuances will be important this year to help build capital enough.

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