Publications

In the midst of a year of global uncertainty, both due to economic and geopolitical factors, Latam has shown a particular resilience that has manifested itself in the appreciation of its currencies and the reduction of its risk premiums.

The global economy faces a double-edged sword in the last quarter of 2025. On the one hand, risks are mounting linked to US economic policies, a less cooperative international environment, and a host of potential geo-economic and institutional shocks. On the other hand, it maintains greater resilience.

This presentation analyzes the global outlook (recent developments and forecasts), and focuses on the EU and Asia trade and capital flows, as well as the challenges both areas face arising from global changes and the reshaping of the world order.

The IOSCO 2025 presentation examines how geopolitical tensions, institutional weakening, aging, climate change, and technological innovations (AI and quantum) interact, amplifying risks and shaping a more unstable global environment.

After more than 25 years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and European Union (EU) reached an association agreement in December 2024— a turning point in the history of both regions. It is currently undergoing legal review, and a provisional implementation is expected by the beginning of 2026.

The document summarizes the presentation delivered at the European Investment Bank (EIB) on European defense spending, analyzed from a geopolitical perspective and from an economic standpoint, presenting the estimated fiscal multipliers of defense expenditure for Europe (García-Serrador, Sarasa-Flores, and Ulloa, 2025).

The insufficient ambition and lack of implementation of the climate commitments made at the COPs, in a context of weakened multilateralism, make it reasonable to consider alternative, more pragmatic avenues for advancing the fight against climate change.

The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU confirmed an already anticipated increase in tariffs, with a limited impact on Spain. Economic activity and inflation remain stable, markets show resilience, and monetary policy in the euro area consolidates without further rate cuts.