Publications

In recent months, the main feature of the global economic outlook has been the increase in uncertainty. The erratic tariff policy of the American administration and the lack of precedent for recent protectionist shocks have made reading the economic outlook complicated.

BBVA Research’s forecasts released this past week point to slight changes in GDP growth expectations, despite the fact that the economy has been exposed to significant shocks.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

The tariff hikes being pushed through by the United States since the start of Donald Trump's second term are genuinely unprecedented. Not in the last century have we witnessed such a sudden and erratic shift in trade policiy implemented within such a short space of time.

The trade surplus in 1Q25 is mainly due to the positive balance on non-oil-related goods. Net foreign direct investment posted an increase of 3.4% YoY in 1Q25 when comparing advance figures.

The U.S. House of Representatives proposed a 5% tax on remittances sent by undocumented migrants to any global destination. This tax would be unfair, regressive, and contrary to international agreements, but would have limited effects and would not significantly affect the balance of payments.

On April 29, President Trump signed an executive order and a proclamation that modified the current tariffs related to security, immigration, the automotive industry, steel, and aluminum. These changes eliminate tariff stacking and provide rebates for the automotive sector.

Over the past five years, from December 2019 to March 2025, the employed population in the United States grew by 4.7 million, of which 92.4% (4.3 million) were of Hispanic or Latino origin, reflecting the great importance of this population in the current economy of that country.